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How to bet NBA All-Star Game after Lebron stacked deck
L AS VEGAS — For the second straight season, the best players of the NBA will be on hand for what has become one of the most unique All-Star events in sports. No longer is the game East versus West as fans have grown accustomed to. Rather, it’s two unfamiliar teams picked by captains LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo going up against one another. It is the second straight year James will be captain of one of the teams, after his squad (-3) defeated Team Stephen Curry, 148-145, last year in Los Angeles.
The All-Star Game will be played in Charlotte, N.C., for the first time since 1991. Assuming there are no late-breaking injuries, the teams’ voted-in starters all figure to be available, making it must-watch TV. Of course, with any must-watch sporting event, the words “must wager” also come to mind.
Knowing little about how these unfamiliar players will work with one another on the court Sunday, betting the game either way is risky regardless. But knowing a history of the game and how the rosters lay out can certainly help.
For most bettors, this game — and the entire weekend, for that matter — offers a winter sabbatical from the grind of daily betting. Still, there is a line, total and numerous props available, and many bettors will get involved “just for fun.” This piece is dedicated to that group, as it is certainly more fun to win your All-Star wagers.
The game has changed a lot in recent years — look no further than the points scored. Two years ago, the West defeated the East, 192-182, with Anthony Davis of the Pelicans stealing the MVP honors away from backto-back winner Russell Westbrook. The 374 points scored were easily a league record, as was the posted total of 351¹/2. In the span of about 15 years, the NBA All-Star Game had seen a posted total rise of about 100 points. That is crazy basketball, indeed.
If you’re a fan of good, solid defense, turn the channel. If you want to call it a “return to normalcy,” in last year’s game the final was a modest 148-145, falling well short of the posted total of 333. I personally attribute the significant point drop to the fact the All-Star players were so unfamiliar with one another as a whole. For this season, I would expect a much lower total with the roster format being the same as 2018.
Davis, James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant figure to be the go-to guys for James’ team, and Antetokounmpo will turn to Curry, Joel Embiid and Westbrook as his top options.
Davis and Harden are the league leaders in Player Efficiency Rating (PER), according to the well-respected Hollinger Stats on ESPN. Thus, the James team looks better on the surface. Antetokounmpo is his team’s top player and is backed by two-time All-Star MVP Westbrook. The James bench also stacks up well against that of Antetokounmpo. Perhaps the All-Star veteran James duped Antetokounmpo on draft night this past Thursday.
So, who wins this year’s game? Who should we bet on? Most often, it comes down to these questions: Which roster is better? And which team will play with more cohesiveness? Though it is impossible for anyone to know enough about No. 2 other than pure speculation, it possible to evaluate the first question. This can be done quantitatively as well as from perception.
I have used a formula in recent NBA All-Star Games to determine which roster was more talented. The formula involves taking into account PER. I’ve estimated the minutes the starters and reserves will play based upon recent games and have come up with a theoretical Total Team Efficiency Rating, which I used to justify a pointspread play for Sunday’s game.
According to the results, assuming the minutes-played breakdown is somewhat accurate (it has been very close prior), the James roster is significantly better in terms of cumulative PER. In fact, this is the widest (8.7 percent) my projections have ever been, beating the rosters of two years ago when the West’s score was 5.2 percent better than the East.
With the game not projecting to be very close, I would be wary of playing Team Giannis with anything but a larger underdog line. For the record, however, Antetokounmpo actually displayed a very strong personal effort last year, even surprising yours truly with the defensive intensity he brought to the game. Perhaps he’ll demand that from the team sporting his name in 2019. That could change things dramatically.