Velasquez will prevail after averting Ngannou knockout
The first official UFC ESPN production airs Sunday from Phoenix, where the main event is a heavyweight showdown between third-ranked Francis Ngannou (+135 at William Hill) and former two-time champion Cain Velasquez (-155).
Ngannou, a massive heavyweight, is basically a one-dimensional striker. He has profuse power in either hand and has been evolving in a sport in which he’s been active for less than five years.
Ngannou’s lack of a wellrounded fight arsenal exposed him in his championship tussle against Stipe Miocic almost 13 months ago, yet his abundant power is something all heavyweights must respect. We witnessed that recently when Ngannou knocked top-five contender Curtis Blaydes cold in Round 1 this past November. Ngannou must remain on his feet to have any chance of winning Sunday night, because wrestling/grappling expertise is not gained in weeks, months or even years.
Velasquez is regarded as the most dominant heavyweight fighter in UFC history, even though he has not competed inside the Octagon in more than 2¹/2 years. Though undersized and lacking real muscle definition, Velasquez is a fighter one must not judge by his physique. He is a world-class, wrestling-based fighter who employs a high-volume, smothering style of fight when he is at his strength. Velasquez must eliminate Ngannou’s distance immediately and keep his head on Ngannou’s chest in order to be able to strike the taller, larger, longer man while simultaneously negating Ngannou’s reach and power. The highest risk for Velasquez will be early in this fight. Velasquez, who is a complete mixed martial artist, must navigate a ferocious first five or six minutes in this fight when Ngannou is his freshest and most devastating. If Velasquez can grind his way into the second round, I see the fight turning to Velasquez based on his employment of unrelenting pressure, superb cardio and a volume striking attack that will slowly and systematically wear down the warrior from Cameroon. THE PLAY: Despite appearances, Cain will be able! Velasquez, -155.