Go with Illinois against cold-shooting Wisconsin

Records can be deceiving, and Illinois, at 10-15 this season, comes into its showdown with Wisconsin (FS1, 8 p.m. ET) blazing hot with four straight wins.

The Badgers, on the other hand, have lost two straight and last scored 70 or more points on Jan. 23, which was the first clash between these two teams.

Illinois ends up fouling a lot due to playing a heavy pressure defense, which typically leads to a lot of free throws for the opposition. With Wisconsin being 327th among Division I teams in freethrow shooting percentage, Illinois’ fouling won’t hurt as much.

Illinois also has done a far better job of guarding the 3-point arc during this run than it did earlier in the year. For the year, Illinois ranks 133rd in opponents’ 3-point shooting percentage, but in this four-game winning streak, foes are converting just 24.4 percent of their shots from distance. Though Wisconsin is 14th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage, the Badgers have gone cold, making just 29.1 percent of their 3-point attempts the past three games. Wisconsin won the first showdown 72-60 in Champaign, a game that was tied at 49 with less than 10 minutes to play. Illinois shot 4-of-21 from beyond the arc to Wisconsin’s mark of 7of-14. Those numbers should level out and give Illinois a chance to give Wisconsin a scare at the Kohl Center. THE PLAY: Illinois +11 ¹/2. Greg Peterson handicaps college basketball in VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly. Sign up for a oneweek free trial at vsin.com/free