MIND THE GAP!
Much intrigue in East, but conference champ will be huge underdog vs. Warriors
LAS VEGAS — There are few things in life that are certain. The sun rising in the East, one barista always spelling your name incorrectly, and masses of people congregating in gyms after New Year’s Day to fulfill a resolution made the night before. Add one more thing to the list: The NBA becoming center of the sports betting universe after the AllStar break.
“We definitely see an increase in action on the NBA after the Super Bowl and after the All-Star break,” said Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk management at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “There is a lull during the last week of the season, as the public treats it like preseason with the uncertainty surrounding starters and their status. Then we see an uptick when the playoffs begin.”
For the first time in what seems like decades, the Eastern Conference is steeped in intrigue. The arms race that took place at the trade deadline shaped Toronto, Milwaukee and Philadelphia into true contenders. Boston, despite all of the negativity surrounding the franchise with Kyrie Irving’s impending free agency, has the same 5/2 odds to win the conference as Philadelphia at William Hill.
It is clear, as the market has shaped itself over these four months, that the bettors hold the Bucks and Raptors in higher regard. The Bucks are 2/1 and Raptors 11/5 at William Hill to capture the Eastern Conference crown. However, despite all of the improvements made by the three teams, the Warriors are the odds-on favorite to win a third consecutive title at -250, and it seems the path to get there is easier than it’s been in years past.
“They are still an enormous favorite,” Sherman said. “Even if any of the Eastern Conference teams [were to have] home-court against Golden State, the Warriors would still be -400 to win the series.”
The Western Conference, it seems, will not provide much resistance. The Nuggets, currently in control of the second seed behind Golden State, are 14/1 to win the conference even though the team’s power rating has improved drastically from the beginning of the year, according to Sherman.
Ahead of Denver on the board is Houston, currently fifth in the conference, at 17/2, even though the Rockets would not have home court in a firstround series if the postseason started today.
“Houston is there because of experience,” said Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill. “If you have a healthy Chris Paul, a healthy Clint Capela and a healthy James Harden, they can compete with anyone. I would put them above Denver and Portland.”
Even the Thunder — a team that went into the break on an 11-2 straight-up and 10-3 againstthe-spread run and is 15/2 to win the West — is no sure thing to compete with Golden State.
“They have been playing good ball, but the difference between the Warriors and anyone else is still a country mile,” Bogdanovich said. “It all depends on health and current form. Twenty-five games is a long time.”
If the Warriors and Thunder are both healthy, Bogdanovich says he would at least give the Thunder a shot.
Surely, if anyone could dethrone the champions, it would be LeBron James. But his Lak- ers are three games out of the eighth seed, and 20/1 to make it to his ninth consecutive Finals appearance.
In fact, things looks so bleak for the Lakers that the Westgate posted a proposition over the weekend: “Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs?” That prop opened as pick, but has since moved to the ‘No’ being favored.
“The action has been consistent on the ‘No’ for the Lakers,” Sherman said. “We are taking dime bets, and multiple dime bets came in on the ‘No’ driving it from pick to minus-140. Even I don’t like their prospects as a Lakers fan.”
In front of the Lakers in the Western Conference are two teams that have surprised both oddsmakers and bettors: the Kings and Clippers. While the Clippers seem to be content building for next season by trading Tobias Harris to Philadelphia, the Kings are another story. In trading for Harrison Barnes prior to the deadline, the team showed it was seriously trying to make a postseason run.
Most people do not get involved at the windows with the NBA until the All-Star break passes. Yet, there are four teams in the East capable of winning the conference, and the best player in the world is in danger of missing the postseason.
There are only about 25 games left in the regular season, and while those who did not follow the league missed out on an entertaining year, the final two months figure to be a wild ride.