Market has yet to catch up with Nets
The Nets begin phase two of the 2018-19 NBA season Thursday night at Barclays Center versus Portland. That ignites an eight-games-in-14 days stretch that will set the tone for the playoff chase.
The Nets sit in the No. 6 slot in the eight-team Eastern Conference bracket, two games ahead of No. 7 Charlotte, 2 ¹/2 games above Detroit and Miami, and three games above Orlando. There’s not much margin for error. Upcoming games with Charlotte (Saturday and March 1) and Miami (March 2) will provide important tests.
Putting together a sports betting report card for the first stage of the season, the Nets are a clear “A” so far. Brooklyn should be the second NBA team to reach its regular-season wins total in short order. Sacramento shocked the world by reaching its target by the end of January. Brooklyn resumes action with 30 victories, just shy of its 32 ¹/2 -win market projection. Should the Nets stumble out of the restart, Orlando (3 ¹/2 wins away), Atlanta (4 ¹/2 wins), Milwaukee (5 ¹/2 wins) or the LA Clippers (5 ¹/2 wins) might get there first.
Brooklyn also has gotten the best of day-by-day point spreads. The Nets are 33-26 against the spread, a 56 percent cash rate. That’s enough to make money for backers. But, the standard 11/10 vigorish on losses (10 percent) does reduce profit to just 4.2 units. Those 26 losses count as 28.6 in money terms (26 plus 2.6).
That 33-26 ATS mark ranks fifth in the NBA, behind only Milwaukee (34-20-3), Dallas (34-22-2), Sacramento (34-23) and Oklahoma City (33-24).
The market has made some pricing adjustments, acknowledging that Brooklyn has stepped up from doormat to knocking on the door of the playoffs. The Nets have been priced well clear of perceived “tankers” or other cellar dwellers. They recently were -7 ¹ /2 at Cleveland, along with -8 and -6 ¹ /2 at home versus Chicago. But, it has to be noted that Brooklyn is
not yet being priced as a playoff- caliber team. Recent point spreads saw the Nets getting three points at home from Denver (same as +6 on a neutral court), 7 ¹ /2 points at home from Milwaukee (same as double digits on a neutral court!), and 10 points at Toronto. Thursday’s home line versus playoff bound Portland will provide another data point, as will Monday’s home line versus San Antonio.
Sharps will be paying very close attention to performance and results versus. other Eastern contenders in coming days, and a potentially backbreaking seven-game road trip from March 13-28 through Oklahoma City, Utah, LA (Clippers), Sacramento, LA again (Lakers), Portland and Philadelphia.
Brooklyn’s hold on a playoff position could be fragile because of that looming trip, followed by five of its final seven games coming against the East’s “big four” of Milwaukee, Toronto, Boston, and Philadelphia.
Smart bettors will should follow developments closely. Brooklyn has been a moneymaker so far. If the Nets’ young talent core has the energy for the challenge ahead, those tickets will continue cashing. But, that challenging final-month schedule means a hard crash is not out of the question.
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