New realities of picking Over/Unders in baseball

When the Mets begin their threegame series against the Cardinals on Friday night, fans and bettors will be looking at two of the best “Over” bets in Major League Baseball this season.

The Mets are 13-4-1 to the Over through 18 games, a 76 percent profit rate for run-lovers. The mark was 13-3-1 before Wednesday’s pitchers duel finished the series in Philadelphia. That 13-4-1 mark is still the top “Over” rate of all 30 teams.

The Cardinals are 11-6 to the Over, a 65 percent profit percentage. That puts St. Louis in the top quarter of the majors for Over bettors.

VSiN already has alerted you to the possibility that baseballs similar in construction to the “juiced” balls of 2017 may be in use. Betting markets recognized that quickly and made adjustments. Many teams have been Under-heavy even in the 2019 environment (notably Houston, the Angels, Detroit, Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Colorado).

So, observers can’t attribute the scoring surges of the Mets and Cardinals strictly to the baseballs. Though, it is possible that their offenses were particularly well-suited to take advantage (the Cardinals have been hitting a lot of home runs), or that the pitching staffs were hurt worse than others because of a tendency to allow home runs (something VSiN has talked about already with the Mets’ starting rotation).

As you watch this weekend’s action under the arch, see if you can spot any influences that may be surprising the markets in terms of run volume.

If you’re interested in betting baseball Over/Unders in general, VSiN has these suggestions:

Don’t fall into the trap of betting Unders in projected pitchers duels and Overs when the starters have poor stats. Oddsmakers know everyone’s ERA. You’ll rarely outsmart the market by betting the obvious. Sure, there will be some 1-0 battles with staff aces, and some 12-7 firework shows at the back of the rotation. Those will just trick you into thinking extremes happen all the time.

With starting pitchers, learn their skill sets rather than worrying about their ERA over the past few starts. Short-term stats can be so polluted that they’re virtually worthless. What are each starter’s strengths and weaknesses? How do those match up against the opposing offense?

Remember to incorporate middle relief into your analysis. That’s more important in the modern game than ever. Poor bullpens will kill Under bets. Elite bullpens can overcome a poor start and save an Under if the manager makes a move at the right time.

Do your best to wait until starting lineups are announced before placing your bet. That’s not always possible. And some healthy teams are fairly predictable. It’s OK to bet early if there’s no chance a star is going to take a day off. The last thing you want is to bet an Over when a slugger or two is getting a rest break (which often happens in day games when bettors are smitten with the weather forecast).