Backers of these teams are royalty $crewed
Tuesday, VSiN looked at the biggest money makers so far in the 2019 Major League Baseball season. Today, it’s time to study the biggest losers.
According to results on the standings page at sports betting website covers.com, the biggest market issue this season has been the inability to properly reflect collapses of the worst teams.
Royals -$2,000 (20 units based on $100 bet per game at prevailing moneyLine odds): It’s no surprise the Royals are bad. Their regular-season win total in March was a low 69¹/2 victories. What was supposed to be about a 70-92 team instead has posted a win percentage that would yield a 53-109 record through 162 games. The market hasn’t “caught down” to this sinking rock.
Mets -$1,871: You’ve watched this debacle firsthand. The Mets are the only National League team on our list, as a group that was supposed to contend for a wild card and is 10 games below .500 at the All-Star break. Too many bettors (sharps and squares) base their bets on the starting pitcher, ignoring bullpen weaknesses. That’s a huge pothole on Roosevelt Avenue in 2019.
Tigers -$1,817: Detroit is a clone of Kansas City in terms of market dynamics. Though, the same can be said for all the American League tankers. You’ve heard through the years that point spreads or money lines are the great equalizer when good teams play bad teams. Just not the case in baseball right now. Orioles -$1,741: In the AL, same song, third verse. Though, in a lower
key. Here, Baltimore was expected to win just 59 games before the season began. The Orioles currently are on pace for a final record of 49-113 as a glorified minor league team. Oddsmakers just aren’t use to pricing rosters this bad. And, old-school sharps are used to betting big dogs for value. That usually worked. Amazingly, Baltimore is down 70.13 units since the beginning of 2018 after dropping 53.72 last season.
Blue Jays -$1,732: The Blue Jays were supposed to be a losing team this season, but not a tanker. Their regularseason win estimate was 75. They’re currently on pace to finish 15 victories below that.
Red Sox -$1,518: A world championship hangover didn’t surprise. Though, it took the Red Sox much longer to clear their heads than the market expected. And, even now, their position in the wild-card race has been keyed by the ability to crush losers. Boston entered the break 17-25 versus teams with records of .500 or better.
This Red Sox result does line up with the old-school perception that you shouldn’t bet media darlings who are “supposed” to dominate. They’re priced to play great all the time. No value. In 2018, the Dodgers dropped almost 23 units before representing the NL in the World Series. Cleveland dropped almost 25 units while winning the AL Central.
But Boston is the first “winning” team on this list. The most “overrated” teams so far in 2019 are projected losers who turned out much worse than expected.
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