How to size up Giants' slate
Too many casual bettors overreact each summer when evaluating the schedule strength of their favorite NFL team.
Some fear disaster when they see several playoff contenders on the slate, imagining a daunting gauntlet of 12-4 superpowers. Some get overconfident when they see a slew of noncontenders, imagining a bunch of gift games against 3-13 patsies. And almost all make the mistake of confidently saying, “That’s a win, that’s a win, that’s a loss,” as they run their finger over the schedule.
What’s the best way to evaluate an NFL team’s upcoming schedule? As VSiN’s Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard discussed with professional analyst Drew Dinsick last week on “Follow the Money” (airing weekdays from 1-4 p.m. on MSG Network), looking at each opponent’s projected regular-season win total will provide a very helpful outline.
William Hill has had its numbers on the board for weeks. VSiN has grabbed the most recent win projections for opponents of both New York teams. We’ll discuss the Giants here, the Jets on Tuesday. Win projections are in parentheses. Giants’ road opponents: Cowboys (9), Buccaneers (6¹/2), Patriots (11¹/2), Lions (6¹/2), Jets (7¹/2), Bears (9), Eagles (10), Redskins (6¹/2).
Of course, the game against the Jets is a neutral-site affair, reducing the number of true road games to just seven. Pat Shurmur and company have winnable matchups against the Buccaneers, Lions, Jets, and Redskins. Maybe one (or more) among the Cowboys, Patriots, Bears, or Eagles will turn out to be overrated. Giants’ home opponents: Bills (7), Redskins (6¹/2), Vikings (9), Cardinals (5), Cowboys (9), Packers (9), Dolphins (5), Eagles (10).
The G-Men are projected to win six games by William Hill. That suggests they’ll be home favorites over the Bills, Redskins, Cardinals and Dolphins (which isn’t a guarantee they’ll win them all), and could be live home ’dogs against their four other opponents.
All told, that’s eight games against projected contenders currently forecast to win nine games or more, six games versus stragglers at 6 ¹/2 or less, and two versus the AFC East tweeners Jets and Bills who may step forward this season or may not.
Obviously a breakout season leading to a playoff shot will be difficult unless a few projected contenders disappoint. That said, it’s far from a brutal schedule thanks to drawing the AFC East in interleague play (soft other than New England), and two games with waning Washington in divisional action.
Of course the elephant in the room involves the quarterback battle between Eli Manning and Daniel Jones. When might a change be made if the season isn’t going well?
Let’s run the first 10 games (pre-bye week) in chronological order: at Cowboys (9), vs. Bills (7), at Buccaneers (6¹/2), vs. Redskins (6¹/2), vs. Vikings (9), at Patriots (11¹/2), vs. Cardinals (5), at Lions (6¹/2), vs. Cowboys (9), vs. Jets (neutral, 7¹/2 ).
From this perspective, the schedule is front-loaded for success. If Manning can’t win at least twice in September, it may be time to punt 2019 and build for the future.