AACCTTIIOONN Odds show evidence of Browns over-hype
Are the 2019 Steelers a serious dark horse to win the AFC and Super Bowl now that “clubhouse chemistry” has been cleaned up? Or, are they already outclassed by the upstart Browns in the AFC North?
Friday’s nationally televised exhibition game between the Steelers and Buccaneers (NFL Network, 7:30 p.m.) will give handicappers a chance to mull those questions.
VSiN’s Michael Lombardi tabbed the refocused Steelers as a smart futures bet on “A Numbers Game” with Gill Alexander this week (“Lombardi Line” kicks off this weekend at VSiN.com, 9 a.m. Saturday and Sunday). But, betting markets have been seeing aggressive Cleveland action all summer.
Pondering the Pittsburgh-Cleveland rivalry renewal is more interesting than Friday’s preseason game. Let’s check the latest prop prices from William Hill.
Regular-season win totals: A bit of a surprise off the bat. Pittsburgh earns a slight nod here by a few cents. Both teams are projected to win nine regular-season games. The Over for the Steelers is -130 (risk $130 to win $100, or anything in that ratio). For the Browns, it’s -125.
Odds to win AFC North: It seems the summer Browns’ hype was more about futures prices than pure victories. William Hill’s AFC North odds are: Browns 6/5 (+120), Steelers 7/4 (+175), Ravens 17/5 (+340), Bengals 15/1 (+1500).
Easier to visualize the overall outlook with percentage equivalents (divide the number on the right of the fraction by the sum of the two numbers). Those are, Browns 45 percent (five divided by 11 is .4545), Steelers 36 percent, Ravens 23 percent and Bengals 6 percent. Those total 110 percent because sportsbooks build a universe larger than 100 percent to create a house edge. This is a surprising Cleveland edge considering the projected dead heat in wins.
Odds to win AFC: Though New England and Kansas City (both 3/1, or +300) are clear of the field to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, the Browns (15/2, +750) and Steelers (10/1, +1000) are on the short list of serious contenders.
Odds to win Super Bowl LIV: Typically, you double the conference price to get Super Bowl odds (a general mathematical assumption far in advance that the big game will be a 50/50 toss-up). That’s the case here, with the Browns at 15/1 (+1500) and the Steelers at 20/1 (+2000).
There clearly is a discrepancy between victories and postseason ceilings. Both are supposed to win nine games. Cleveland is seen as more likely to go further despite less postseason experience at head coach and quarterback.
Does that make sense? Not really. But, it’s a reflection of all the buzz about the Browns after last year’s resurgence to respectability. Many bettors believe their elevator is going up fast from 7-8-1. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is left with some tricky buttons to push.
Pittsburgh and Cleveland don’t meet until the second half of the season. They’ll battle Nov. 14 in Cleveland, Dec. 1 in the Steel City. Circle those dates!