Bears could be headed for a grisly fall
If sports betting is essentially “arguing with money,” then one of the hottest arguments this summer involves how good, or disappointing, the 2019 Bears will be in head coach Matt Nagy’s second season.
Fresh off a 12-4 campaign and an NFC North championship, Nagy and the Bears visit the Giants on Friday at 7:30 in the second exhibition game for both.
Avid Chicago fans believe last season was the start of something big. The Bears lost a 16-15 heartbreaker to the Eagles in the playoffs. Why can’t this year’s talented team go deeper in the brackets as young quarterback Mitchell Trubisky continues to mature in Nagy’s system?
NFL betting markets typically expect outliers to regress back toward the .500 mark. It’s a league of parity. Great records are often influenced by good luck that won’t last. Awful records are influenced by bad luck and inspire teams to replace dead weight with better talent.
So, Chicago isn’t expected to go 12-4 again, according to long-settled regularseason win total props. In fact, the Bears aren’t even expected to go 11-5 or 10-6. William Hill is showing a solid nine wins, with slight juice on the Over at -115 (risk $115 to win $100 that the Bears will win 10 or more).
Presumed regression. The Saints and Rams both went 13-3 last season, and both are lined at only 10 ¹ /2 wins with heavy Under vigorish. The Chiefs and the Chargers both went 12-4 last season. The Chiefs are currently at 10 ¹ /2, the Chargers 10 in projected win totals.
Bears fans see nine and yell, “Are you kidding?” Skeptics are asking, “Have you looked at the schedule?”
The 2019 slate certainly shapes up as a daunting grind. It’s impossible to anticipate major injuries, but assuming good health for everyone:
Chicago will play four tough divisional games against the Vikings and Packers, who are also seen as serious playoff contenders.
Chicago drew the AFC West in interconference play this season. That means games against those 12-4 Chiefs and Chargers entries. There’s also an early-season road game at Denver, where altitude can wear down the unprepared.
Chicago drew the NFC East in the conference divisional rotation, which means games against projected contenders Philadelphia and Dallas.
Chicago finished first in the NFC North last season, which locks them into matchups with the Saints and Rams, the other first-place finishers.
It’s very possible that the Bears can improve in “true quality,” but finish with a record worse than 12-4 against that slate. But, it’s also possible that a No. 3 ranking in turnover differential will draft back toward the league. Or, Trubisky’s awkward passing form continues to be a problem before his scampering tendencies run him into an injury.
There are a lot of ways for football fans to argue with money. Circa Sports in Las Vegas has the Bears a virtual coin flip (-115/-105) just to make the playoffs.