Browns mania all bout Baker
Is Baker Mayfield the next big thing? The second-year quarterback and his Browns visit the Colts on Saturday afternoon (NFL Network, 4 p.m.) in the second preseason game for both teams. Indianapolis again will be without quarterback Andrew Luck, who’s dealing with a lower leg injury.
Analysts who are excited about Mayfield’s future tend to focus in intangibles. He’s enthusiastic. He’s a great leader. He has a fighting spirit that inspires his teammates. And he’s still low on the learning curve. That last point may be the most important. Mayfield clearly showed he was a fast learner in his 14 performances last season.
Mayfield’s first seven games:
Mayfield’s Browns went 2-5 straight up and 3-4 against the spread because the game was just too fast for him. Mayfield was sacked a stunning 22 times (more than three per game), and posted a touchdown/interception ratio of 10/7.
To be clear, that’s far from a disaster for a rookie quarterback being thrown into the deep end. Sink or swim. Many more experienced young quarterbacks have sunk hard. Mayfield took his hits while learning the ropes. That set a baseline for expectations.
Mayfield’s last seven games: A
huge turnaround, one that caught betting markets flatfooted. The Browns went 5-2 straight up and against the spread. They went 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS as underdogs (upsetting Atlanta 28-16 as a seven-point ’dog, beating Carolina 26-20 while getting a point, and edging Denver 17-16, also at plus one).
Was Mayfield the cause of that turnaround? Or was he just an innocent bystander?
He was largely a cause. His stats improved dramatically. Mayfield was sacked only three times, total. In the two seven-game samples, that’s a drop from three per game to a grand total of three (0.4 per game). His TD/INT ratio was much better at 17/7.
If you double the key numbers in those final seven games to approximate a full season for a smarter, sharper Mayfield, you get 34 touchdown passes, 14 picks, and just six sacks. Of course, he could improve even more. The first seven games were the floor. The next weren’t necessarily the ceiling.
That’s why sharps were enthusiastic about Cleveland when betting the earliest 2019 futures. A team getting that level of production from a quarterback goes on the short list of playoff contenders, though still behind the likes of favorites New England and Kansas City.
After weeks of summer betting from both enthusiasts and skeptics helped settle prices, William Hill is showing Cleveland at 6/5 (+120) to win the AFC Central, 15/2 to win the AFC (+750), and 15/1 to win the Super Bowl (+1500).
A regular-season win total prop of nine, with the Over favored at -125, suggests a real chance for the Browns to reach double-digit victories.
Key indicators paint an optimistic picture of Mayfield’s future. For betting purposes, his Browns will offer value only if the market stays behind his learning and production curves. Keep an eye on that when the regular season arrives.
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