Viking & Seahawks in same boat
Both the Seahawks and Vikings are “tweeners” entering the 2019 season. Neither is currently seen in the same class as the Saints or Rams. But, both are rated clear playoff threats, a cut above the rest of the parity-racked NFL.
With those two pairing off in prime time Sunday (Fox, 8 p.m.), handicappers would be well served to review what kept both out of the championship chase last season.
What will jump out first is a poor record versus top competition. Minnesota failed to make the playoffs and went 1-6 straight up against teams that did. Its only litmus-test victory was a tight two-point win over Philadelphia.
Seattle earned a wild card, but lost in the postseason at Dallas. The Seahawks went 2-4 straight up in the regular season versus playoff qualifiers. That’s a combined 3-11 overall versus playoff teams.
Outside of those challenges, both played soft schedules. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings at USA Today show Seattle playing the 25th-ranked schedule (out of 32 teams), with Minnesota just behind at No. 26.
To this point, both teams look more like pretenders than contenders.
A big difference between the two was the turnover department. Seattle led the NFL with a plus-15 differential. That was keyed by a league-fewest 11 giveaways. Russell Wilson’s offense should be able to continue avoiding high-impact miscues. But, differential is a fickle category that’s hard to dominate two years in a row.
Minnesota was dead even. Turnovers have a way of following quarterback Kirk Cousins around, but the Vikings do have an elite defense. Poor opposing offenses have little hope of putting up points on the Purple People Eaters.
Entering 2019, betting markets are slightly more bullish on Minnesota according to these odds from William Hill:
Regular-season wins: Minnesota sits at nine, with the Over juiced to -125 (risk $125 to win $100 that the Vikings will clear their hurdle). Seattle is 8 ¹/2, but with higher Over vig at -140. Both trail the Rams and Saints (10¹/2 with Under juice) and Eagles (10).
Odds to win the NFC: Minnesota is 10/1 (9 percent equivalent), while Seattle is 12/1 (8 percent). Remember that sportsbooks build a universe larger than 100 percent to create a house edge. The NFC race could get very exciting with these two plus Chicago (whose brutal schedule we discussed Friday), Green Bay and Dallas all hoping to chase down the Rams, Saints and Eagles.
Odds to win the Super Bowl: You can commonly double conference futures prices to get Super Bowl odds. The championship game is seen as a 50/50 math prospect this far in advance. Unsurprisingly, Minnesota is 20/1 (5 percent), Seattle 25/1 (4 percent).
Handicappers should plan to evaluate these September litmus tests: Seattle at Pittsburgh (Sept. 15), Minnesota at Green Bay (Sept. 15), New Orleans at Seattle (Sept. 22) and Minnesota at Chicago (Sept. 29).
Today’s tweeners won’t be “playoff caliber” until they win more often versus other playoff contenders.