A FULL DECK
Return of offensive stars puts Giants cover in the Cards
O NE OF the blemishes in a 10-4 Week 6 in this space was a misread on Sam Darnold’s return to the Jets. I figured the team had dipped so far below sea level that Darnold could lift them only so high.
As it turned out, he changed everything the instant he stepped onto the field. Receivers who seemed as if they were in the witness protection program were catching balls again, Le’Veon Bell was finding running room, the defense was energized, and the Jets defeated Dallas, 24-22, in a game they probably should have won by more.
It’s with that in mind that I’m willing to lay three points with the Giants at home against the Cardinals on Sunday. Big Blue’s offense is not quite yet at full strength, as Sterling Shepard is likely to sit out again with a concussion. But Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram are expected back, and that’s a big deal. Daniel Jones has operated for less than one half with a healthy Barkley, who will be playing “angry,” according to Engram. It’ll be interesting to see what Jones can do with those two plus Golden Tate, who caught a long touchdown pass in New England.
Expecting a high-scoring game on both sides, as Kyler Murray and the Air Raid offense have put up 60 points in the past two games. But another angle to consider is the Giants have extra rest off a Thursday game, while the Cardinals traveled almost cross-country off a late Sunday start.
The pick: Giants, -3.
COLTS (-1) over Texans: Battle of two pretty equal teams that just beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The edge here might be found in the situation. The Colts are at home off a bye while it’s a back-toback road scenario for the Texans. Dolphins (+17) over BILLS: “Thou shalt not give 17 points with the Bills” surely would be one of the Ten Commandments of Football Betting ... if anyone had ever thought that line was even possible. Dolphins have lost by diminishing margins of 49, 43, 25, 20 and one point. And the Bills average just 18 ppg, so if Ryan Fitzpatrick can put up even 10 points for Miami, this will be a tough cover for Buffalo.
Vikings (-11/2) over LIONS: Detroit is coming in off near misses against the Chiefs and Packers (and the referees). The Lions covered the spread against those two heavyweights, but this is a bit of a tough turnaround off a contentious Monday nighter. The Vikings are finally starting to get in gear offensively with Kirk Cousins utilizing both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.
Raiders (+51/2) over PACKERS: Quick turnaround for the Packers off their ref-aided Monday victory over the Lions. Jimmy Graham, Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Marquez ValdesScantling are all ailing. Meanwhile, the Raiders come in off a bye after slapping around the Bears in London.
BENGALS (+31/2) over Jaguars: As Blues Traveler sang back in the ’90s, the hook brings you back. The Jaguars have been favored just once this season, last week against the Saints, and they did nothing offensively in a 13-6 loss. It’s a lot to ask of Gardner Minshew to be a road favorite, particularly when a three-point win would not be enough to cash.
Rams (-3) over FALCONS: The 1-5 Falcons have been utterly defenseless (allowing 31.0 ppg). The Rams are a huge disappointment at 3-3, but their trade for Jalen Ramsey signals they still intend to try to defend their NFC title.
REDSKINS (+10) over 49ers: The 49ers’ 5-0 record includes double-digit road victories at Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and the L.A. Rams. They were underdogs in each of those games. San Francisco is just 2-13 ATS in its past 15 games as a favorite. The ’Skins have just one cover (backdoor, at that) in six games. But if you like to bet contrarian, sometimes you have to adopt a homely ’ dog.
TITANS (-2) over Chargers: After scoring 43 points in their opener in Cleveland, the Titans have put up just 55 over the next five games. Their defense has been excellent, though, allowing 15.3 ppg for the season. With Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, looking for the Titans to roll up their sleeves and get physical with the disappointing Chargers. Ravens (+31/2) over SEAHAWKS: Ravens haven’t covered a spread since Week 1 (59-10 at Miami), so public bettors are a little sour on them, creating some value here for this fun Lamar JacksonRussell Wilson showdown. Seattle is 3-0 straight up but 0-3 ATS in front of the 12th Man this season. BEARS (-3) over Saints: Though Teddy Bridgewater has won and covered all four starts with the Saints, a Sunday late afternoon date at Soldier Field should be his toughest test. In two games there this season, the Bears have given up 10 points to the Packers and six to the Vikings in a defensive beatdown. Bears also are coming in off a bye following an embarrassing loss to the Raiders in London. Eagles (+21/2) over COWBOYS: Though the Eagles suffered a rare recent loss as an underdog in a ghastly performance at Minnesota last week, I’m happy to take points with them versus a Cowboys team that could be down two starters at offensive tackle, wide receiver and cornerback.
MONDAY
JETS (+91/2) over Patriots: Darnold already put the Jets offense back on the map. Gregg Williams’ defense has had its moments. If C.J. Mosley can return, this straight-up result could be up for grabs.
BEST BETS: Giants, Raiders, Eagles.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Giants (Locks 2-4 in 2019).
LAST WEEK: 10-4 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.
THURSDAY: Broncos (L).