COURT'S IN SESSION
Tips for making money betting the NBA
I F FOOTBALL is the undisputed king of sports betting, basketball is second in line to the throne. The NBA always has been popular with casual fans. But the success of daily fantasy sports and the sweeping legalization of sports betting in the U.S. has taken NBA betting to another level.
The NBA’s Adam Silver was the first pro commissioner to come out in favor of legalized betting in 2014. The league has embraced betting as a way to connect with fans and grow the sport.
Like football, basketball is predominantly a spread and Over/Under sport. This means bettors are tasked mostly with picking not just who will win each game, but by how much (who covers?) and how many points will be scored by both teams combined.
Bettors also must pay the juice (aka “vigorish”) on all spread and Over/Under bets. The juice is typically 10 cents, known as “-110.” Assuming standard juice of -110, this means bettors must win 52.38 percent of their NBA bets to break even. Anything above that means you’re turning a profit. Bettors should strive to win 53 to 55 percent of their plays. The sharpest bettors win at about a 60-percent clip.
With NBA about to get started, let’s break down a few helpful tips for bettors entering the 2019-20 season:
Home-court advantage is
overvalued: Oddsmakers typically will award three points for the home court. Public bettors love taking home teams, which leads to the books shading lines in their direction, leading to over-priced numbers. This creates added value to buy low on road teams.
Embrace rested road
’dogs: The public also likes to bet on favorites, which makes sense. If you’re going to bet, you might as well back the “better” team. However, this bias also creates shaded lines toward favorites, creating added value to back underdogs.
The key is focusing on road ’dogs, specifically those enjoying a rest advantage. The NBA plays a busy 82-game schedule with lots of traveling and backto-back games. Always consider these factors when placing a bet, especially when one team has tired legs and the other is rested.
One great spot to lean on: Road underdogs coming off four or more days of rest against teams on two or fewer days of rest. These rested road ’dogs have covered 56 percent of the time since 2005, according to Bet Lab Sports.
Look for “severe” line moves: In the NBA, it’s common to see a line move a halfpoint or a full point in either direction. But when you see a big 1¹/2-point line move, or even more, that means it likely was caused by some big smart money from professional bettors. Since 2005, home ’dogs receiving at least 1¹/2 points of line movement in their direction (think +8 to +6¹/2), have covered at a 56.4-percent rate.
Go contrarian: Because the NBA market is flooded with recreational money from Average Joe bettors, going contrarian or “betting against the public” is a smart move. More often than not, the public loses. They bet with gut instinct and bias. So going against the crowd mentality is a profitable long-term strategy. The easiest spots to bet against the public are the nationally televised prime-time games on TNT or ESPN that get lots of attention and heavy bets from public bettors.
One of the best ways to go contrarian is to look for inflated lines in which the public is extremely heavy and lopsided on one team and forces the books to move the number further toward that popular team. By being savvy and betting on that unpopular underdog, you just got an extra point or more of value simply due to the public artificially inflating the number.
Look for divisional totals that drop: Unders are smart bets in general because, just like favorites and home teams, the public is biased toward Overs. They want to see a fun, exciting, high-scoring game and root for points. Sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers toward Overs, creating added value to bet Unders. Since 2005, Unders have cashed at a 50.3-percent clip. When divisional teams meet and the total falls at least one point, signaling sharp action, the Under has cashed at a 54.6 percent.
It’s also important to research “pace” statistics when betting totals. This takes into account the average number of possessions each team has per game. A high pace is great for Overs, while a low pace benefits Unders.
Know referee tendencies: All officials want to get the calls right. But they’re human. Some lean toward home teams, some toward road teams. Others side more with favorites over underdogs. Some call lots of fouls and help Overs, while others “let them play,” which benefits Unders.
You shouldn’t bet a game specifically based on referee tendencies, but knowing them can be important if all the refs working a game lean the same way.