Is this spread for reel? Take Dolphins, plus 17

Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his second season with the Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.

Dolphins (+17) over BILLS: The Dolphins finally covered a spread in their 17-16 loss to the Redskins last week, so at least we saw some effort from this hapless team that everyone has accused of tanking. And note that Ryan Fitzpatrick, who orchestrated the comeback, gets the start over Josh Rosen and gives the Miami offense the best chance for success. But the main reason I’m backing the Dolphins is because the Bills shouldn’t be favored by 17 over any NFL team. I’m fully aware the Bills are 4-1 ATS, as I’ve been on them several times myself, but they weren’t laying 17 points — they were +2¹/2 , -1¹/2 , -6 (the lone non-cover vs. the Bengals, and another reason not to trust the Bills in the favorites’ role), +7 and +3¹/2. Yes, I know the Dolphins are allowing 36 points per game, but the Bills are averaging just 18, and it shouldn’t take much for the Dolphins to stay within three scores.

Saints (+3) over BEARS: I’m actually surprised the Bears are favored by a full field goal here considering their embarrassing loss to the Raiders in London, plus the fact the Saints are 4-0 SU and ATS in starts by Teddy Bridgewater. The Bears (who are also coming off a bye) might be getting back QB Mitchell Trubisky, but the jury is still out on whether that’s an upgrade. Besides, the Saints, who usually play much better in the friendly confines of the Superdome, have won their past two road games at Seattle and Jacksonville.

LAST WEEK: 1-1. SEASON: 6-6.