Don't monkey with 'middles'
Squares dream of hitting a “middle,” but rarely pull it off. Sharps don’t think much about it, but do it all the time.
One of the misconceptions new bettors have is that professional bettors “try” to hit middles. That’s betting both sides of the same game at favorable prices — say, the favorite at -5¹/2, the underdog at +7¹/2, and hoping the game lands on either the six or the seven. Sharps definitely will make those bets if they see value. But, they didn’t lay the 5¹/2 initially in hopes of setting up a middle, and they wouldn’t bet the ’dog at +7¹/2 if they made the game 8 or 9.
The chance at a middle is a byproduct of smart betting. It’s not the goal of smart betting.
It’s also important to remember professional bettors may not have the same amount of money on both sides. Using that 5¹/2 to 7¹/2 window ... maybe they made the game 7 and have three betting units on the favorite at -5¹/2, but only one on the ’dog at +7¹/2. Ignoring vigorish for the moment, they’re risking only two units on the favorite. But, if the game lands on 6 or 7, they luck into a four-unit jackpot.
Over time, a hidden factor that financially separates squares from sharps is that squares bemoan “pushes” that land on numbers they bet too late, while sharps often celebrate jackpots in those same games.
One clear example on Saturday’s college football slate is TCU at Kansas State. The line opened TCU -2¹/2. Sharp interest (with some public sentiment) drove the line through the key number of 3 up to TCU -3¹/2 Some ’dog lovers came back on K-State +3¹/2 (others may be waiting for +4). Three is a very common final margin, which means the percentages can swing either way with the hook. We can visualize the “sharp window.” But, respected money might be weighted more toward one side or the other around the strike zone.
Should recreational bettors even think about trying for middles? Probably not …
Squares greatly overestimate their ability to anticipate line moves and navigate the market. So, they’re not skilled at positioning themselves “as the dough flies.”
Squares love betting favorites, but hate betting ’dogs. To hit a middle, you have to suck it up and put some money on the underdog. These days, squares would rather mix and match favorites in point-spread parlays, money-line parlays and teasers.
Squares who have tried betting middles in the past learned they were miserable spending more than three hours rooting for a victory margin to land on one or two specific numbers. Heaven forbid there’s a safety in the second quarter. Those two points could ruin everything. Recreational bettors play for fun. Sweating middles isn’t fun.
If you want to think and bet like sharps, focus more on numbers rather than teams. Make yourself available to bet openers rather than waiting until the weekend. Take advantage of gameday opportunities that are created by line moves.
You have to be in the middle of the action to have your action create middles.
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