kid might have card blanche vs. 'Zona' defense
If the advance weather forecast holds up, quarterback Daniel Jones should have a big day for the Giants on Sunday against the visiting Cardinals (1 p.m., Fox).
Take a look at the opposing passing lines in Arizona’s games this season:
Detroit: 27-of-45, 0 interceptions, 361 yards (overtime) Baltimore: 24-37-0-258 Carolina: 19-26-0-240 Seattle: 22-28-0-225 Cincinnati: 27-38-0-262 Detroit played an extra 10 minutes, which helped launch the Lions’ numbers higher. But, you can see that everybody (even unheralded Kyle Allen of Carolina and Andy Dalton of disintegrating Cincinnati) had good days. Seattle was sitting on a big lead, so effectiveness showed with a 79 percent completion rate rather than yardage volume.
That line of zeros in the interception slot really jumps out. Nobody has been intercepted against the Cardinals this season. Yes, that probably jinxed Jones into a first-quarter pick. But, you can see the Cards aren’t doing much to disrupt opposing quarterbacks.
Recent games versus Minnesota (2138-1-147) and New England (15-31-3-161) provided tough litmus tests for the Giants’ passing offense. Now Jones is stepping down in class. Fans and bettors should be disappointed if he doesn’t reach at least 22 completions and 240 yards (unless he’s sitting on a big lead).
It might take a big performance to make believers out of global betting markets. It looks as if the Giants will close around -3, which is the standard value of home-field advantage in the NFL. Big Blue haven’t received any line nudges despite non-contending Arizona playing out of climate in a “bad bodyclock” time slot.
In our weekly estimate of “market” power ratings based on late-week point spreads, Jonathan Von Tobel (host of “The Edge”) and I still have the Giants and Cards well behind most of the NFC:
NFC: Vikings 84, Packers 83, Eagles 83, Cowboys 83, Seahawks 83, 49ers 83, Bears 83, Rams 82, Saints (Teddy Bridgewater) 82, Panthers (Allen) 81, Lions 80, Falcons 79, Buccaneers 79, Giants 75, Cardinals 75, Redskins 70.
The market is suggesting the Cardinals and Giants are even on a neutral field. Maybe that means both at 76 instead of 75. Recent point spreads aren’t consistent with such optimism. We’ll stick ’ em at 75 and adjust in the future if needed.
At least Sunday’s game should be an entertaining matchup. The Over/Under likely will close around 50 to 50¹/2 pending the potential weather impact. The current forecast is mostly cloudy, 60 degrees and winds in the 6-8 mph range.
VSiN will check in on the Jets tomorrow when we preview their Monday night matchup with the Patriots from a market perspective. In the meantime, here are current estimated “market” Power Ratings for the AFC:
AFC: Patriots 89, Chiefs 85, Texans 83, Ravens 82, Bills 81, Colts 81, Raiders 80, Jaguars (Gardner Minshew) 79, Chargers (with injuries) 79, Broncos 79, Titans (Ryan Tannehill) 78, Browns 78, Jets 77, Steelers (Devlin Hodges) 76, Bengals 73, Dolphins 67 (Ryan Fitzpatrick).
Get more betting information like this by signing up for VSiN’s free daily newsletter at VSiN.com/newsletter.