Cys-ing up World Series betting angles
Frontline pitching always has been important in the baseball playoffs. Both 2019 World Series combatants are great examples of why that’s true. Handicappers and bettors will be dealing with Cy Young-caliber pitchers both Tuesday and Wednesday as the Fall Classic featuring the Nationals and Astros begins at Minute Maid Park (8:07 p.m. both nights, Fox). Game 1: Max Scherzer vs. Gerrit Cole Game 2: Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander
Scherzer and Strasburg have a combined postseason ERA of 1.69 for the Nationals, throwing 42 out of Washington’s 90 playoff innings (a 47 percent load). Strasburg sports an unthinkable 33/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio versus playoff competition. Scherzer’s more mortal at 27/8, but he has only allowed eight hits compared to 18 for Strasburg. One dares you to make contact, the other refuses to let you!
Washington was a perfect 6-0 in playoff games the S&S Express started versus the Brewers, Dodgers and Cardinals, despite entering as an NL long shot. The Nats were 2-2 with other postseason starters.
Cole and Verlander have a combined postseason ERA of 2.11 for the Astros, throwing 48 out of Houston’s 98 playoff innings (a 49 percent load). Cole has been virtually untouchable, allowing one earned run in 222/3 innings. Verlander’s been home-run prone (five allowed), but posted a 1.32 ERA in his two “first look” spots versus the Rays and Yankees.
Houston was 5-2 in the games Cole and Verlander started, 2-2 with others.
The eye test and evidence from analytics studies have made it very clear that MLB switched back from the “aerodynamically and hitter” friendly baseballs of the regular season to the prior design. The average LCS affair saw a total of just 6.9 runs scored per game, well below fast-adjusting market assessments more commonly in the 7 to 7.5 range. That means the four initial starters will have a good chance of maintaining quality, even if they regress a bit from these early extremes.
Global betting markets have Houston as roughly a 2/1 favorite to win the world championship, with prices ranging slightly at various stores. If you’re thinking of betting the Astros, you need to believe they’d win this bestof-seven at least 70 percent of the time. The ’dog would make sense for value if you could justify at least a 37 percent win rate in your handicapping.
How will sharps attack each game? That will depend on day-to-day prices. Veteran pros will be looking for value spots to take a talented underdog with its best pitchers. They will likely fade struggling Astro Zack Greinke in Game 3 in Washington unless that becomes a bandwagon sentiment driving the money line out of whack. Fading Verlander in Washington’s second look will get serious consideration if the series gets that far.
Though the Yankees were eliminated in the ALCS, VSiN knows that baseball fans will still be watching the World Series every night. If you bet, bet smart!
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