This should Nat be such a big shock
After a day for travel, the 2019 World Series has moved to the nation’s capital for Games 3, 4 and possibly 5 over the weekend. The Nationals won the first two games in Houston, and the fact they’re in a position to win the first world championship for the franchise that began as the Montreal Expos in 1969 should not come as a major surprise.
Baseball fans knew that Houston had the best record in baseball this past season at 107-55 … and that Washington had to survive a wild-card game against the Brewers just to get into the main bracket. That “knowledge” created a “David vs. Goliath” story line in the media and the marketplace. Houston was more than a 2/1 favorite when the series began.
Yet, if you focus on what happened after the first 50 games of the regular season — once Washington got on the right track — you’d be hard-pressed to find much difference between the teams.
First 50 games: Houston 33-17, Washington 19-31
Final 112 games: Houston 74-38, Washington 74-38
Should Washington have been such a big long shot on pre-playoff futures boards — and a big series underdog to Houston — just because it kicked the ball around until May 24? Those 74-38 records represent more than a fourmonth sample size of “recent” baseball.
Since the playoffs began, Washington has posted the better record. The Nationals entered the World Series with an 8-2 mark (now 10-2). One win over Milwaukee, a 3-2 survival vs. the
Dodgers (who also closed the regular season 74-38 after the 50-game mark), and a 4-0 sweep of St. Louis.
Houston entered the World Series with a 7-4 postseason record, taking five games to knock out Tampa Bay, six to finish off the Yankees. The Astros are now 7-6 in the playoffs.
Technically, Washington has been the slightly superior team over the past four months.
It had been argued that Houston’s acquisition of Friday’s scheduled starter, Zack Greinke, put the Astros over the top talent-wise. That popular theory has been put to the test already. In three playoff outings, Greinke has a poor ERA of 6.43, having allowed 10 earned runs (and five homers) in just 14 innings. Could his erratic big-game history prove to be a difference-maker in the wrong direction?!
Knowing which stats or records to prioritize is always a tough choice for handicappers. Things will seem obvious in retrospect. Bettors must make a good faith effort up-front when evaluating team and player quality, rather than looking for stats that confirm preconceived notions.
What’s important for today’s discussion is a reminder that accurately capturing “now” can help you find betting value if markets and media coverage have been unduly influenced by results from many months earlier. This will be true as you handicap the rest of the college and pro football seasons, and next spring’s championship chase in college and pro basketball.