How to spot a potential blowout
There’s not much to say about Monday night’s meeting between the Dolphins and Steelers (8:15 p.m., ESPN) beyond the obvious. Pittsburgh is laying a very tall number. Winless Miami either will implode in a blowout loss (like in its first four games), or hang tough and get the money (like in its last two).
Many sharps are looking at Miami +14 or better because quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been playing with fire since rejoining the lineup. He went 12-18-0-132 in the fourth quarter alone in a late-game rally vs. Washington, then 25-35-1-282 last week in a near-upset of Buffalo (the Bills expanded their victory to 31-21 on a late onside kickoff return touchdown).
Such a dynamic is one of the keys to handicapping football or basketball games with big point spreads. Bettors will be dealing with high numbers through the rest of football, all season long in the NBA, and in the 2019-20 college basketball season that will be starting very soon. That makes this a great time to review two basic fundamentals for handicapping football and basketball games likely to end with significant garbage time.
Can the big underdog put points on the board, particularly late in a game? Whether it’s to lock in a cover, or come through the back door to save your bet, you want to invest in big underdogs that have a reliable way of scoring.
Some football offenses are so bad that their quarterbacks can’t even find the end zone against second- and thirdstringers. Other big ’dogs are outclassed
when it’s starter-vs-starter, but actually have an edge when it’s starter-vs-backup.
Whether it’s a football playmaker likely to score touchdowns, or a basketball scorer looking to pad his stats with 3-pointers, late-game offense is a nice ace to have up your sleeve.
When is the head coach of the big favorite likely to call off the
dogs? Veteran college coaches have established tendencies in football and basketball. Declining parity at the pro level will create opportunities for you to make evaluations on the fly. You don’t want to bet underdogs against coaches who will mercilessly run up the score. But, you can make good money fading coaches who will focus more on running clock than scoring points late in one-sided games.
These days, there are reference sites all over the internet that allow you to dig up old box scores and point-spread performances (such as covers.com). You can track well-traveled head coaches from job to job through their careers. You can look for “magic numbers” in scoring summaries — the in-game margin advantage when he’ll take his foot off the gas. You can also check to see if a college coach is more likely to go for the jugular in home games in front of the alumni, but play more conservatively on the road.
Whenever confronted with a doubledigit point spread, focus on how the offensive skill sets of the underdog match up with the late-game tendencies of the favored head coach. Smart bets will make themselves!