LIFE FROM THE ‘PARTY’
With win over Georgia, ’dog Florida poised to sneak its way into playoff
THE STAKES seem low this week.
Top-ranked LSU is off. So is No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 5 Penn State, No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 13 Minnesota, while No. 4 Clemson is an off-the-board favorite over Wofford of the Southern Conference.
The playoff picture can’t change much.
Next week is different, when LSU or Alabama will play the most watched game of the season, and the loser likely will be eliminated from reaching the SEC title game, but potentially still be in contention for a playoff spot, a la the 2017 Crimson Tide. The possibility of the SEC swiping a second bid hangs over the head of every undefeated team still standing, knowing a conference championship might not be enough if the Tigers and
Tide reenact their 2011 field goal kicking contest, which triggered the playoff ’s creation. What’s forgotten is that the SEC’s second potential playoff team might not even be playing in that game.
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will almost certainly crown the SEC East champion, likely putting No. 6 Florida or No. 7 Georgia in line for a win-and-in scenario against the LSU/Alabama winner in the conference title game.
The Bulldogs were long expected to be there. Then, Jake Fromm was intercepted three times against South Carolina, and followed with a scoreless first half against Kentucky. Now, the struggling quarterback faces Florida, whose defense has the most sacks in the SEC and has forced the third-most turnovers in the nation.
The Gators have already knocked off No. 11 Auburn, and tested LSU on the road without wide receiver Kadarius Toney and impact defenders Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard, all of whom will return against Georgia.
Timing is everything in this coin-flip game, and Florida (+6½) is perfectly positioned to reclaim the SEC East.
BAYLOR (-18) over West Virginia: While Texas sits with three losses and Oklahoma just lost outright as a 23½-point favorite, the undefeated Bears — who were 1-11 just two years ago — sit atop the Big 12. The Mountaineers counter with the league’s last-ranked offense and defense.
CONNECTICUT (+27) over Navy: Go out. Friday nights should be more entertaining than this.
MARYLAND (+21) over Michigan: Human sacrifice. Dogs and cats living together.
Mass hysteria. The Wolverines ended an eightgame losing streak versus top-10 teams with a blowout win over Notre Dame last week. So, naturally, Jim Harbaugh’s usual domination of the Terps — all four wins by an average of 32.5 points — will stop with a letdown.
North Carolina State (+7½) over WAKE FOREST: Demon Deacons coach Dave Clawson is 0-7 following a week off, which includes this season’s lone loss, to Louisville.
NOTRE DAME (-17½) over Virginia Tech: Brian Kelly isn’t going anywhere. The Fighting Irish are stuck with a coach who led them to a national championship game and playoff appearance, while recording two undefeated regular seasons. If that’s failure, I’ll happily let Kelly handle my best bets.
FLORIDA STATE (-3) over Miami:
What’s more shocking: That the ACC could be so bad or that both former powers could become so irrelevant? At least the Seminoles have won their past three games, against unranked teams.
Rutgers (+21) over ILLINOIS: The Scarlet Knights are due for many things. Covering as an underdog (0-6) and breaking a threegame scoreless stretch on the road are at least attainable.
WASHINGTON (+3½) over Utah: The Utes are beginning to get some playoff buzz because of their third-ranked defense, but they haven’t proved much yet, failing their biggest road test — at USC — and holding no wins against currently ranked teams.
AUBURN (-19) over Mississippi: The Tigers just stood toe-to-toe with the No. 1 team in one of the nation’s most hostile environments, and have posted a 7-1 record against
the spread this season. Now, they get their first home game in more than a month.
EAST CAROLINA (+23½) over Cincin
nati: I’ll admit that I haven’t seen the Pirates play this season. The avalanche of bets on the Bearcats makes me think I’m not alone.
MEMPHIS (-5½) over Smu: The Mustangs (8-0) have been a wonderful story — in the midst of their best season since infamously receiving the “death penalty” three decades ago — but pressure has finally arrived in their toughest game of the season, with ESPN’s “College GameDay” shining the spotlight on the marquee Group of Five game.
NORTH CAROLINA (-2½) over Virginia: Mack Brown has no shortage of rabbits in his headset. Expect the Tar Heels to pull out another last-minute win over the Cavaliers, who have lost three straight road games.
USC (+5) over Oregon: The Trojans are 4-0 at home this season and quietly possess a strong path to the Pac-12 championship. While the Ducks are lurking as a potential playoff team, recent sweats against Washington and Washington State hint of a slipup to come.
Boise State (-17) over SAN JOSE STATE: The Broncos were 6-0. Then, quarterback Hank Bachmeier got hurt, and they suffered their first loss. If he’s back, Boise State will be fine. If he’s not, the Broncos will have had two weeks to prepare for the 111thranked defense in the nation.
BEST BETS: N.C. State, Auburn, North
Carolina
THIS SEASON (BEST BETS): 66-72-2 (11-16) 2014-18 RECORD: 641-612-10