FAVORITE ’SON
Tigers likely to be picked for playoff despite underwhelming résumé
NOT a single win over a team currently ranked. Just four victories over teams above .500, and one is Wofford. A near loss to 4-5 North Carolina.
It scheduled Wofford and Charlotte as part of its non-conference slate. The best win came against mediocre Texas A&M, which is in fourth place in the SEC West.
Does this team belong in the College Football Playoff ? Before you answer, that team is Clemson. Feel differently now? I thought so. On merit, the Tigers don’t belong right now. The wins aren’t good enough. Their conference is a mess. Their opponents are a combined 38-40 and their strength of schedule is ranked 64th in the nation according to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin ratings. According to the ratings, the lone top-40 team Clemson has faced is No. 18 Texas A&M.
But there is history. Dabo Swinney’s program won it all last year. It has become as dominant as Alabama, albeit without the regular-season challenges Alabama has to deal with every fall. It has a roster full of future pros. It will likely go undefeated and does have No. 23 Wake Forest on the schedule.
(For transparency sake, I have Clemson ranked fourth, because I believe it is one of the four best teams in the country for the time being. But playoff selection should be more about the eye test. Georgia was one of the four best teams last year and wasn’t included).
It is the most interesting team in the playoff mix, because of its poor résumé and rich recent history. The Tigers are the team I will be watching the closest when the made-for-television College Football Playoff rankings show kicks off Tuesday night.
This show is, of course, about money and ratings, but there is some value to it, especially the first show. Last year’s opener included three of the playoff teams in the top four. The year before it was the same number. The season before that it was two playoff teams in the top four.
There have been some surprises. Ohio State came all the way back from being No. 16 to reach the playoff in 2014. But usually the teams in the top four, or at least close to the top four, are the ones that decide the title.
It will be difficult for Clemson to make up much ground considering the schedule. There is not one significant opponent left, while others have marquee games remaining.
That said, I fully expect Clemson to reach the playoff. I can’t see the committee leaving out an undefeated Power Five conference champion, especially one with such a big brand. I believe winning has to matter most, but you also can’t ignore how weak the ACC has become, without a legitimate second team to at least challenge Clemson. We’ve heard so much about the importance of scheduling tough and beating winning teams. It would seem contradictory to include Clemson over a one-loss team that has a number of impressive wins.
For argument’s sake, suppose LSU loses to Alabama on Saturday. Do you take undefeated Clemson or one-loss LSU, which has defeated the likes of Texas, Florida and Auburn?
Ask yourself this, if this wasn’t Clemson and there was this paper-thin résumé, would that team be considered such a sure thing?
It’s a debate that figures to heat up over the next month. Tuesday night’ s first College Football Playoff ranking may reveal a lot about which direction this is headed.
High tide
The Game of the Year is on tap Saturday in Tuscaloosa, when undefeated Alabama hosts undefeated LSU, and the entire SEC should be pulling for the Crimson Tide. It’s how the conference gets two playoff teams. LSU’s résumé, as stated above, is good enough to absorb a road loss, especially to a top-flight opponent. Alabama doesn’t have a single significant victory yet. The showdown, actually, means more to Nick Saban’s team.
Tagg’ you’re out
One big jobi snow open and it won’t be long until another one is, too.
Florida State fired coach Willie Taggart on Sunday, 21 games in, and reportedly ate more than $17 million to get rid of him. He had won just nine games, and the Seminoles were in danger of missing a bowl game for the second straight year after appearing in one 36 straight seasons.
Soon, USC will be looking for a new coach, too. Clay Helton is 10-11 the past two seasons and USC was just embarrassed by Oregon, 56-24, at home. Mike Bohn, the soon-to-be named USC athletic director, will be looking for his own guy to restore the once proud program to national relevance.