Turnovers deflate value of 'Dimes'
Daniel Jones of the Giants will make his “Monday Night Football” debut as a divisional home underdog against the Cowboys (8:15 p.m., ESPN, PIX11).
It can be tough for analysts to get a clean read on the young quarterback’s impact because he’s been so mistakeprone. Bettors instinctively know that 161 or 182 passing yards isn’t very good in the modern NFL (performances vs. Minnesota and New England), and that 322 or 336 passing yards is terrific (performances vs. Tampa Bay and Detroit). But, what about all the turnovers? How much are those hurting Jones’s true impact?
Generally speaking, a turnover costs an offense about 60 yards. Obviously some giveaways are more damaging than others. Sixty yards works well enough as a general rule.
Where does that total come from? Turnovers are typically worth about four points. You veteran football fans know that VSiN’s Brent Musburger and former college and NFL head coach Dick Vermeil were longtime broadcast partners. Vermeil used to say his research showed fumbles cost an offense five points, interceptions three points. Same ballpark. Still generally true.
A standard yards-per-point ratio in competitive football is usually around 15/1. Fifteen yards per point is 60 yards per four points. Turnovers are worth about four points and 60 yards.
So, if you start by looking at Jones’ raw passing yardage, then subtract 60 yards for each giveaway, the resulting number will give you a better sense of his impact.
Sept. 9 at Dallas: Jones played long enough to throw only four passes. But, he did lose a fumble. His 17 passing yards minus 60 for the fumble is negative 43.
Sept. 22 at Tampa Bay: Jones passed for a whopping 336 yards in his starting debut, but he lost two fumbles. As a result, his impact was more like throwing for 216 yards.
Sept. 29 vs. Washington: He played a very clean game versus a bad team, throwing for 225 yards with no giveaways.
Oct. 6 vs. Minnesota: A tough day against a good defense. Jones passed for 182 yards, but threw an interception. Think of it as an abysmal 122-yard day.
Oct. 10: at New England: Against what’s been a historically strong defense, Jones passed for 161 yards but threw three interceptions. Minus 19 yards feels about right for forgettable loss.
Oct. 20 vs. Arizona: A disappointing 223 passing yards were largely erased with two lost fumbles and an interception. Call it 53 yards of overall impact.
Oct. 27 at Detroit: His best game of the season with this shortcut analytic approach. “Danny Dimes” passed for 322 yards with another lost fumble. A total of 262 is better than the 225 vs. Washington.
Jones has a chance to be a differencemaker against Dallas. The Cowboys have forced only nine turnovers in seven games this season, including just one versus the Jets in a 24-22 loss the last time they were seven-point favorites at MetLife Stadium.