Analytics point to late run by Raiders
Are the Raiders for real? Heading into Thursday night’s AFC West matchup against the Chargers (8:20 p.m., Fox/NFL Network), they’ve certainly been better than expected.
VSiN’s Brent Musburger (the radio voice of the Raiders) was adamant after April’s draft that the team was heading in the right direction. More voices are joining the chorus after a 4-4 start that has the Silver and Black in playoff contention. Oakland is 5-3 against the spread, proof it’s been underrated (the line reflects how you’re “rated!”).
Oakland is in great shape to at least reach its projected regular-season win total of six victories. Wagered could have bet Over or Under six this past summer. Vigorish was shaded toward the Under because the Raiders were seen as a lame duck buying time until their move to Las Vegas. Even if Oakland loses to LA on Thursday night, the next two games are at home versus Cincinnati, and on the road versus the Jets, two teams that may be more interested in losing for draft position.
Analytics indicators worth noting as you evaluate Thursday’s matchup and Oakland’s overall outlook:
Oakland has played the secondtoughest schedule this season according to computer ratings posted by Jeff Sagarin of USA Today (compared to No. 23 for the Chargers). Opponents include Kansas City (when Patrick Mahomes was healthy), Green Bay, Houston, and Minnesota. Any team that’s 4-4 against a brutal schedule is likely 5-3 or better against an “average” schedule.
Oakland’s yards-per-play differential is almost even (6.2 gained on offense, 6.3 allowed on defense). YPP differential is a great indicator for quality. Those marks confirm the current record as legitimate. Again, against an average schedule the Raiders would grade out as a winner.
Oakland’s turnover differential is -1. Same story here. Though, this is an extra-important stat for the Raiders because the offense has been sloppy in recent seasons. In 2017, they turned the ball over 28 times. In 2018, 24 times. So far in 2019, just eight giveaways through eight games. Oakland can hang with anybody if its not turning the ball over.
William Hill has the Raiders slightly more likely than the Chargers to win the AFC West. Here are current odds, with equivalent win percentages in parentheses: Chiefs -450 (82 percent), Raiders 5/1 (17 percent), Chargers 15/2 (12 percent), Broncos 300/1 (less than 1 percent).
Sportsbooks build a universe larger than 100 percent to create a house edge. Oakland trails Kansas City (6-3) by only one in the loss column. If Mahomes returns hobbled, who knows?
Thursday night’s point spread, though, suggests that the bulk of the betting market still sees the Chargers as the superior team. An opener of Oakland -1¹/2 was bet to LA -1. Maybe the Chargers’ recent change at offensive coordinator will make them a better team in the second half of the season than in the first. Maybe not.
Bettors should respect the Raiders unless turnover issues return.