Study hard to pass college hoops tests
Be sure you take advantage of research opportunities offered by marquee college basketball matchups. Programs have smartened up about gaining early-season TV exposure, creating midweek classroom clinics for recreational bettors.
Wednesday’s schedule features a trio of must-see attractions based on either poll or Pomeroy ratings:
No. 22 LSU visits No. 25 VCU (6 p.m., ESPN2) in a battle of potential Big Dance spoilers. It should be noted Ken Pomeroy’s respected computer ratings (generally used as a “base” for market openers) had LSU only at 39th, VCU at 38th entering the new week. Top 40 instead of Top 25, but teams still likely to matter.
No. 10 Villanova visits No. 18 Ohio State (7 p.m., FS1) in an interconference battle of power programs. Pomeroy has this as a “Sweet 16”-caliber matchup, with both entering the week in the top dozen.
No. 23 Purdue visits Marquette (9 p.m., FS1) in a Midwest treat featuring another Pomeroy “Sweet 16” showdown. He had Purdue at No. 9, Marquette at No. 15 entering the week. Polls aren’t always in sync with Pomeroy. Sharps know whom to respect more!
Yesterday we discussed tips for reading the early-season NBA market. Those same principles apply to the colleges (study openers to know what oddsmakers are thinking, study line moves to know what sharps are thinking). Additional suggestions:
Make kenpom.com a daily stop. The home page is free (access to advanced stats requires a subscription). Whether you’re handicapping favorite teams, favorite conferences, or the bulk of the board, you’ll find the information enlightening. In short, oddsmakers and sharps use these numbers. You’ll have little chance of consistent success if you don’t.
Evaluate offenses and defenses in the context of pace. Run-and-gun teams often create the illusion of great offense and bad defense just because their games are high scoring. Patient passing offenses create the illusion of bad offense and great defense because their games are low scoring. Some very effective offenses play low-scoring games. Some playmaking defenses (steals and blocked shots) are hidden in track meets. Stats for offensive and defensive efficiency are more widely available than ever (teamrankings.com is another helpful source). Don’t handicap like it’s the 1980s.
Focus 2019 efforts on how teams are adjusting to the longer 3-point distance. If you’ve been watching TV attractions already, you’ve noticed some horrible shooting performances. Don’t invest in teams committing a lot of “virtual turnovers” with missed 3s. Ride proven sharpshooters as small favorites or underdogs.
Look for “red flags” in early-season results. Make note of any big favorite from a major conference that was upset by, or narrowly survived, a cupcake. Plan to fade them in upcoming litmus tests. Take off-the-radar underdogs that have been getting results on the road or at neutral sites.
Remember that coaching changes often create style changes. UCLA is about to become a blue-collar bruiser under former Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin.
Be an informed handicapper so you can bet smart!