Lugo with the flow

Righty’s versatility could allow Mets to add pitching help in either of 2 avenues

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Seth Lugo is a bullpen weapon. Lugo potentially projects to be a No. 3-type starter by possessing a strong four-pitch mix.

Lugo’s versatility provides what Brodie Van Wagenen termed “a unique opportunity” to let the market dictate how the Mets will configure their pitching next season. The Mets are canvassing which starters and relievers are available in trades and free agency and their costs. Whichever desired player can be obtained within the Mets’ budget will dictate what role Lugo will play next year. Land relievers, he starts. Bulk up the rotation, he returns to the bullpen.

As always, money matters. Van Wagenen would not divulge his 2020 payroll. But the Mets are projected at near $190 million for luxury-tax purposes, and ownership does not want to get much closer to the $208 million threshold. Which is why you hear the word “creative” a lot with ththe Mets. Translation: Can the Mets fifind a way to, for example, trade Jed Lowrie’s $9 million as part of a deal to take on money and stay relatively ppayroll-neutral?

It also revolves around the Mets asking Lugo and Robert Gsellman to prepare to enter spring training aas starters. Of that duo, Lugo has the hhigher ceiling and more interesting pitch mix. But his value to the pen is susubstantial.

Thus, part of the Mets’ decisionmaking process includes doubling down on the idea that Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia had bad years in 22019 rather than that they are now bad pitchers. The Mets think both still possess high-end stuff, and the teame says it is working with the duo to make refinements to allow Wagenen’s t that stuff to words, flourish “We again. have In Van tototal confidence they will be susuccessful next year.”

So what do the two roroads offer?

Lugo starts — Can Lu go e n d u re 1 5 0 - pl u s innings health-wise? The Mets believe it could be easthanh i ier on the the more righty regular to know usage he is ewt working every five days rather in a pen. Also, would stuff that plays so wonderfully in relief have the same life and deception if Lugo had to persevere over 100-ish ppitches rather than 20 to 30?

If it does, Lugo has the repertoire. He basically uses a starter’s arsenal in relief and has the ability to break the ball both ways and challengee hitters up and down in the zone. In 2020, Lugo would slot in fofor Zack Wheeler, who probably is signing a big deal somewhere else (rremember how close the Mets are to the tax threshold, throwing real doubt on their statements about potentially re-signing the righty). Still, Van Wagenen said of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz that “one to four, (the Mets rotation) remains as good as anyone in baseball.”

And with Lugo, this can’t be overstated in importance for the Mets: If he is a No. 3-ish starter for the next three years until his free agency, he would cost about $25 million in that period. The savings derived from that is substantial when they have to consider a rotation with Wheeler likely gone this year, Stroman due to be a free agent after 2020 and Syndergaard and Matz after 2021.

Finding relief in the market is generally less costly than starters. Again, the big “if ” here is that if Diaz and Familia can handle the final six outs, then the Mets could, say, buy someone such as Daniel Hudson to work with Justin Wilson and Gsellman to get to Diaz and Familia.

Lugo relieves — play. It provides hW This a complement is the safer to Diaz and Familia to dominate the late innings if all goes well and a security blanket if Diaz and Familia cannot shake 2019.

My sense is the Mets would be better in 2020 with Lugo in the pen, but better situated from 2020 to 2022 if Lugo started. When I proposed that hypothesis to Van Wagenen, he said, “We won’t sacrifice 2020 for global economics.”

But keeping Lugo in the pen means the right starter falling at the right price to the Mets. To me, Rick Porcello is ideal and well-known to key Van Wagenen lieutenant Allard Baird from their time together in Boston. Even last year, at his worst, Porcello was an innings-eater, which would work fine in the fifth spot if the Mets’ pen is deep with Gsellman and Lugo joining the others. And if Porcello is right — he won the AL Cy Young as recently as 2016 — he can be a frontend starter.

If not Porcello — who also brings leadership, accountability and familiarity working in a big Northeast market — would the Mets gamble on Michael Pineda’s high-end stuff coming off a PED suspension, hoping again that if it played right, he has No. 3 starter talent? Should they bet on Alex Wood, who hardly pitched last year for the Reds due to a back injury, but had a 3.20 ERA for the Dodgers in 304 innings between 2017 and 2018?

The Mets get to internally debate all of this because of Lugo’s perceived versatility.