Back the right 'dog for rivalry weekend
It’s very easy for recreational bettors to get overenthusiastic about rivalry weekend in college football. They’ll imagine some sort of edge (take all the home teams, take all the revenge teams, take everyone that “needs” the game more, etc.). Then, they’ll apply that simplified strategy to way too many matchups.
A much better strategy is to look for clusters of potential edges, then only bet the games where multiple factors are working for you. Focus on a few choice prospects. Betting a lot of games based on a shortcut is rarely a smart move.
VSiN suggests you focus on the following when mixing your rivalry cocktail:
Underdogs: The general public loves betting favorites, that means lines are shaded in that direction. You’re much more likely to put the percentages in your favor by taking the points.
Quarterbacks: Many “situational” plays go right down the tubes because the team that was supposed to be in a great spot has a lousy quarterback. Motivation doesn’t trump talent. Fade turnover-prone quarterbacks who struggle in big games. Be picky about finding proven quantities. Be sure you take the time to properly evaluate quarterback quality in rivalry games you’re considering.
Bowl Eligibility: Teams fighting to earn a bowl bid have extra motivation to extend their season. This could matter vs. opponents who are already locked in, one way or another. You don’t want to bet only on this factor. It’s a nice ingredient in a cocktail. Make a list of all teams in rivalry games that are currently 5-6 straight up this season.
Bowl In-eligibility: What we mean here is that losing teams that can’t play in the postseason will often treat a season-ending rivalry game as their bowl. An underdog with an adequate (or better) quarterback in this kind of spot offers value. Make a list of all teams in rivalry games that are 4-7 or worse, have playmakers at quarterback and are facing already bowl-eligible opponents.
Execution Under Pressure: Many rivalry games go right down to the wire because the favorite is mistake-prone under pressure. Don’t back these types of favorites, then curse penalties or your bad turnover “luck.” Ask disciplined ’dogs to take advantage, particularly if they have some of our other categories going for them. Try to find time to review season-to-date penalty, sack and turnover stats, particularly in highpressure games.
Rally for the Coach: Some losing teams love their head coach and think his likely firing is a raw deal. They’ll get sky high for one last game to send that message. Be sure to review which coaches are on the hot seat entering Friday and Saturday action. Then read local media coverage online to gauge player passion.
Sound like a lot of work? Betting smart is a lot of work. Betting whims for fun is how squares lose their money. Make the most of this holiday weekend by focusing on skill sets and relevant motivational factors.