A SAD TOY STORY
No new breakout hits, so holdovers hold sway
The holiday toy season just kicked off — and manufacturers already look pooped.
Big toymakers like Mattel and Hasbro have failed to launch any new blockbuster toys this year, analysts say. That, in turn, has left toy franchises that are already a year old or more to pick up the slack.
Amid the shopping frenzy on Black Friday, top-selling toys smacked of stuff that was almost, but not quite, new, according to Adobe Analytics: licensed dolls, for example, from Disney’s “Frozen 2” — the sequel to a movie that debuted in 2013.
Other winners included O.M.G. dolls — updated, larger versions of MGA Entertainment’s L.O.L. Surprise! dolls, which first appeared three years ago; and toys based on Spin Master’s “Paw Patrol” animated series, which also first launched in 2013.
Year to date, the lack of new stuff has hurt business. Toy sales are already down more than expected — 5.5 percent through the first nine months of the year, according to BMO Capital Markets.
“There’s no breakout hot product to drive traffic to stores or online,” wrote BMO analyst Gerrick Johnson. Even after the holiday surge, he expects toy sales to be down 2 percent this year.
It didn’t help that Disney — whose Baby Yoda has created a social-media frenzy since the creature appeared in its new “The Mandalorian” Star Wars series — has failed to produce any action figures or plush toys based on the cuddly new character.
A few of this year’s top toys are indeed new, according to Johnson, such as Yulu’s Pop Pops Snotz — poppable slime bubbles that are frequently paired with colorful, plastic hammers. Likewise, he lists Jakks Pacific’s new X-Power Dozer, a motorized truck, as the fifth most popular toy this year.
Nevertheless, neither currently appears to be in danger of selling out.
Most of the other top-selling toys this year, meanwhile, are new iterations of existing franchises, like Mattel’s Barbie Color Reveal — a doll whose identity, including her skin tone, hair, makeup and clothing, is revealed after she’s dunked and swirled in warm water.
It looks like a repeat of 2018 — except that this year L.O.L. Surprise! dolls will be two years old instead of just one year old. The modern, accessory-laden take on the Russian nesting doll first appeared in December 2017, but became a sleeper hit last Christmas.
It was a better time for toymakers in 2016, when there were waiting lists for Hatchimals, small robotic figures that “hatch” from an egg-like encasement. Fidget spinners were in such short supply that manufacturers in China demanded cash from their US customers in order to secure their orders.
A year later, in 2017, when Canada-based WowWee’s Fingerlings finger puppets exploded onto the toy scene, Fidget spinners were still flying off shelves and selling out.
A breakaway hit would go a long way toward “driving people to the toy store,” said toy consultant Richard Gottlieb. “It always helps to energize people but there is no hit right now.”