Air Force won’t fly away from Wyoming

This is college football’s rivalry week, but we’re avoiding the marquee matchups for Saturday’s best bet.

Air Force is an 11-point home favorite over Wyoming, but I love the underdog Cowboys. I see why oddsmakers have the Falcons favored. They’re 9-2 and the Cowboys are 7-4, but I believe the difference between these two teams is a lot closer to a field goal as opposed to the double-digit spread we’re generously getting.

Air Force, which ironically relies on a triple-option ground attack, is No. 2 in the nation at 293.4 rushing yards per game, but Wyoming ranks No. 7 against the run, allowing just 93.7 rushing yards per game.

Besides, the Cowboys haven’t had any problem containing the Falcons as they’ve won five of the past six games in this series and have covered the past 10 meetings.

As for this year’s team, Wyoming has a strong running game itself. Xazavian Valladay, who is expected to start despite nursing a knee injury, went over the 1,000-yard mark last week with 154 yards against Colorado State. Quarterback Tyler Vander Waal’s starts aren’t too impressive since replacing Sean Chambers, but he manages the game well enough and did enough to get us the back-door cover two weeks ago as our Top Play on Wyoming +5.5 against Utah State.

Besides, another thing working in our favor with Wyoming at +11 this Saturday is the fact the Over/Under on this game is set very low for a college football game at 41 points with both teams content to grind it out with their running games. That means points will be at a premium and makes the 11 points the Cowboys are getting even stronger.

In addition, Air Force isn’t really built to blow teams out. The Falcons have been double-digit favorites four times this season and failed to cover in wins over San Jose State, Army and New Mexico.

THE PLAY: Wyoming +11.

Dave Tuley writes for Point Spread Weekly, VSiN’s digital magazine for sports bettors. Details at vsin.com/subscribe