A 'favorite spot for Jets'
Betting markets are showing a lot of confidence in the resurgent Jets. After being priced like distant doormats for weeks, Sam Darnold and Co. will likely close as at least three-point favorites Sunday in Cincinnati (CBS, noon). That point spread could rise by kickoff given the Jets’ three-game win/cover streak:
The Jets (+3) upset the Giants, 34-27, winning total yardage and yardsper-play … while holding the G-men to just 23 rushing yards.
The Jets (+1) won at lowly Washington, 34-17, dominating total yardage, 400-225; yards-per-play, 6.1-3.7; and rushing yards, 115-54.
The Jets (+3.5) stunned Oakland last week, 34-3, with stats very similar to the Redskins game. For one day, the Jets made the Raiders look like they were tanking.
No, it wasn’t a murderer’s row. The Giants and Redskins are both 2-9. Oakland was an overconfident visitor from the West Coast playing with a bad body clock. But, Cincinnati is 0-11, the worst team in the league.
That recent version of the Jets should be able to name the score against the Bungles. So, why is the point spread so low?
Andy Dalton returns at quarterback for Cincinnati. The Jets won’t be facing a rookie this week, or a bleary-eyed vet.
Cincinnati has permission to win. The Bengals have a two-game “lead” in the Joe Burrow sweepstakes. If they were tanking to reach 0-11, they don’t have to do that this week when other bad teams are at least 2-9.
The Jets are favored for the first time in a month (loss at Miami) and just the second time all season (loss to Buffalo in the season opener). Sports betting lore is full of stories about teams that get things going as underdogs only to lose their focus as favorites. Can the Jets win when they’re “supposed” to win?
Markets can be slow to move when a team legitimately takes a big step forward. The Ravens are a recent example. VSiN isn’t saying the Jets are as potent as the Ravens, but Sunday’s line in Cincinnati could be this low because it’s a market error.
VSiN’s latest estimate of “market” Power Ratings (as compiled with Jonathan Von Tobel of “The Edge”) show the Jets making a leap to respectability.
AFC: Ravens 88, Patriots 87, Chiefs 85, Texans 81, Titans 81, Colts 80, Bills 80, Chargers 80, Browns 80, Raiders 79, Jaguars 77, Jets 77, Steelers 75 (w/ Hodges), Broncos 75, Bengals 70, Dolphins 69.
NFC: Saints 86, 49ers 85, Seahawks 84, Vikings 84, Packers 83, Cowboys 83, Eagles 81, Rams 81, Panthers 79, Buccaneers 79, Bears 79, Lions 78 (73 with Driskel, 71 with Blough), Falcons 77, Cardinals 75, Giants 74, Redskins 72.
Those are based on settled late-week lines, adjusting three points for home field advantage. The soaring Jets are now a field goal better than the Giants, who host Green Bay on Sunday (Fox, noon).
Note that Baltimore has moved to the top of a manic marketplace thanks to recent blowouts. Brace for December drama.