Saints ain’t gonna cover vs. Colts

The natural reaction might be to think the Saints will bounce back after that tough loss to San Francisco last Sunday. But I actually believe that loss was more than tough on the Saints — to have lost that back-and-forth, shootout game between two NFC heavyweights in the final seconds. It was brutal and demoralizing. To now ask the Saints to get back up off of the mat and lay nearly double digits, I think that is a very tall task.

The Saints are currently ninepoint favorites on Monday night at the Superdome against the Colts.

New Orleans is 7-17 against the spread as a home favorite when coming off of a home loss, and 0-7 ATS when laying more than a touchdown in that scenario.

This trend speaks to exactly what I am saying. When a team suffers a heartbreaking loss at home, I think it is even tougher to come back at home again and have to rise above and beyond the occasion — in other words, to have to cover a very large spread.

Both teams run and defend the run very well. Both teams have excellent offensive lines and protect the quarterback very well. The Saints are clearly the better passing offense, but defending the pass is the strength of the Colts defense.

Indianapolis blew a big lead and blew the game last week in Tampa Bay. I feel getting the national spotlight of “Monday Night Football” will be a boost for this club off of last week’s disappointment. The Saints have one of the greatest home-field advantages in the NFL, and it’s almost as if every home game is a Monday night-like atmosphere.

For the Colts, at 6-7 and likely out of the playoffs, the Monday night lights will provide a stage for this team to show up big one more time and play what will be “their Super Bowl.” The last time we saw the Colts on prime time, they upset the Chiefs, winning outright as 11-point ’dogs. We recall that was also off of a disappointing loss, after the Raiders upset Indy at home in Week 4.

I made this line seven. It’s at nine now and I think it might close at seven or 7 ¹/2. I think the Colts at +8 or better is a good play, and I do believe they have a solid chance to win the game outright.

THE PLAY: Colts +9.

Brady Kannon writes for Point Spread Weekly, VSIN’s digital magazine for sports bettors.