Lately, Saints aren't All Dat
Back when Drew Brees returned from a long injury absence in late October, betting markets were ready to crown the Saints as NFC champions. But, heading into Monday night’s home game against the Colts (8:20, ESPN), there are now serious doubts about the team’s championship bona fides.
You’ll recall New Orleans ended its temporary “Teddy Bridgewater Era” with a 6-1 record that included doubledigit road wins in Seattle and Chicago. If Drew Brees was back at 100 percent, the Saints were clearly in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
A 31-6 rout of Arizona in his return may have created some illusions. A week off followed the Cardinals game. Since the Saints’ bye:
• New Orleans (-14) was shocked by Atlanta, 26-9, missing the market by 31 points. The Saints offense managed just 310 yards on 4.9 yards-per-play while converting only 25 percent of its thirddown tries indoors on a fast track vs. a soft defense.
• New Orleans (-5) won and covered at Tampa Bay, 34-17. But, it was a “safe” win where the team patiently watched Jameis Winston throw four interceptions (one of which was returned for a Saints’ touchdown). The offense didn’t ignite, gaining 328 yards on 5.1 yards-per-play.
• New Orleans (-10) was life and death with Carolina in a 34-31 home win. Here, the offense did play well. The defense wasn’t up to playoff standards against an opponent about to implode.
• New Orleans (-7) won and covered at Atlanta, 26-18, Thanksgiving night. it was another “turnover” win with a 3-0 advantage. The Saints offense only gained 279 yards while converting 20 percent of third-down tries.
• New Orleans (-1¹/2) lost at home to San Francisco, 48-46, in a fireworks show. The offense did shine against a tired Niners defense that mud-wrestled AFC favorite Baltimore the week before. Another disappointing day for the Saints defense.
More wins than losses, but not vintage New Orleans voodoo.
What may have been most telling about Niners-Saints for the marketsavvy is the point spread stayed under a field goal in the Superdome. Home-field advantage is usually worth three points in the NFL, sometimes more at that particular site. Yet, sharps drove the fatigued road ‘dog away from the key number. Rightly so according to the score and game stats.
A big home win over Indianapolis could help get things back on track. New Orleans will likely close as at least 8¹/2- to 9-point favorites. It couldn’t play to high expectations at home vs. the Falcons or Panthers. Indianapolis has been a big ’dog once all season, scoring a 19-13 upset in Kansas City getting 10¹/2 points.
For now, minds that matter don’t see the Saints as best in the NFC anymore. Gamblers should be aware that New Orleans won’t be a smart bet in the playoffs if it doesn’t find more consistency on both sides of the ball. You can’t just hope for turnovers in January.