Xmas slate's few stars shy of being great
It’s not quite the day-night stocking stuffer the NBA, ESPN’s family of networks, and sports bettors were hoping for. No Stephen Curry for Golden State’s injury-depleted roster. No Zion Williamson for New Orleans. The Lakers’ LeBron James either will be out or slowed down by an injury that caused him to sit out this past Sunday.
But, handicappers will still get a chance to evaluate the Eastern Conference championship picture in the first two games of a Christmas quintuple-header. And maybe Santa will bring LeBron a cure for a thoracic muscle sprain before a prime-time meeting of Western Conference favorites.
Let’s run through the schedule from a market perspective. Odds to win the league title from William Hill are in parentheses.
Boston (14/1) at Toronto (50/1), noon, ESPN: The Celtics have been a pleasant surprise, performing much more enthusiastically as a unit since Kyrie Irving’s departure. They sport a 17-8-2 ATS record, cashing 68 percent of their decisions. Toronto is still marketrated fourth-best in the East despite losing Kawhi Leonard from last year’s league champions. Current odds just to win the Eastern Conference: Boston 7/2, Toronto 12/1.
Milwaukee (7/2) at Philadelphia (9/1), 2:30 p.m., ABC: The 76ers still rank second in the East on futures boards, though they wouldn’t even have home-court advantage in the first round if the playoffs started today. Elite talent, but not much regular-season fire has cost their backers a few units after vigorish. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 31 ppg, the Bucks have the best record in the NBA at 27-4, and are 18-13 ATS. Milwaukee is 11/10 to win the East, Philly 11/5.
Houston (12/1) at Golden State (750/1), 5 p.m., ABC: Maybe only gamblers will watch this one. Warriors fans can’t bear to see their team in its current state. Houston can probably name the score. But the Rockets have a tendency to take their foot off the gas in such spots (1-6 ATS its last seven laying -7 or more).
Clippers (13/5) at Lakers (2/1), 8 p.m., ABC: Everyone circled this TV blockbuster before the season started. It’s always a dice roll in the NBA whether scheduled attractions will pan out because of injuries or load management. The Lakers are off to the hotter start straight up (24-6 to 22-10), but the Clippers have been better against the spread (18-14 to 16-14).
William Hill’s numbers have it at 83 percent that either the Lakers (33 percent), Clippers (28 percent), or Bucks (22 percent) will throw a parade next summer. True odds are less than that because sports books build universes larger than 100 percent to create a house edge.
New Orleans (1,000/1) at Denver (20/1), 10:30 p.m. ESPN: A disastrous start for the Pelicans, losing outright about three-fourths of the time, missing the market roughly two-thirds of the time. It probably won’t improve playing at altitude on the road versus a budding Western threat.
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