Place your Betts
Why Sox are ready to deal young star — and trade could come any day now
There were years, nearly a century, really, when the Red Sox had to prioritize a season over their near future. Such was championshipdrought life during The Curse.
Four titles in the past 16 seasons — one as recently as 2018 — affords Boston a certain comfort to make broader decisions than, say, the Dodgers, who have not won a title since 1988, or the Padres, who have never won it all.
Of course, the Red Sox want to win again this year, have a fan base and history that demands constant striving for rings. But the titles allow the Red Sox rightfully to ask this question: How important is the single season of 2020 compared to the near future?
Before answering that, let’s think about a key 2021 issue, namely what percentage chance is there that Mookie Betts is with the Red Sox in 2021, even if Boston does not trade him before he can declare for free agency at the end of the coming season? The Red Sox have tried multiple times and failed to sign Betts long term with no indicators the sides were in the same ballpark or that Betts truly wants to stayay long term in Boston.
He can be looking at a $400 million-ish contract nextxt offseason when you considerer his talent (abundant), age (notot even 28 until October) andnd a potential bidding field thatat could include (among others)s) the Dodgers, Giants and a Metsets organization suddenly infuseded with Steve Cohen’s wallet. So are we talking about the Red Soxox having even a 5 percent chancence of keeping Betts when — againain — he has demonstrated, at best,est, ambivalence about staying?
Let’s now return to 2020. The Red Sox still have the coree of their 2018 championship team,am, but their depth is suspect (majorsjors and minors), their rotation is tal-talented but fragile (with no obviousious help immediately looming), they are operating without a managerager one week before camps open due to the sign-stealing scandal,al, their potential punishment foror any transgressions from 2018 are due before the regular season and on paper the Yankees and Rays are better in the AL East. Plus the AL, in general, is better this year than it was in the past two seasons. Boston is talented enough to get to the playoffs, but a division title would be a surprise.ise.
So how much do the Redd Sox want to prioritize 2020 by holdingolding onto Betts over using him to try to elevate a fallow farm systemm that could take a further whack if the commissioner strips the Red Sox of draft picks as part of a sign-stealing penalty, as was done to the Astros? That Betts is owed $27 million and is a free agent after the season lowers how much Boston can expect compared to Betts’ actual talent.
Still, Boston has twice tipped which way it is leaning when 1) owner John Henry said as last season concluded that the Red Sox’s plan was to get beneath the $208 million luxury-tax threshold, which the organization later amended to a hope, not a mandate. And 2) Chaim Bloom was hired as chief baseball officer. Bloom was hired from the Rays, an organization that does more with less and always is thinking big picture, not just this season.
And word from executives who have been briefed on ongoing talks is that in the last week or so, discussions between the Red Sox and the main Betts suitors, those title-hungry Dodgers and
Padres, have become more purposeful. Boston has heard strong offers from both, so there is now a stronger belief the Red Sox will deal their best player in the next week and then cope with that fallout rather than have to manage the awkwardness of Betts in spring training.
A person briefed on discussions said the reported scenarios were mostly accurate; namely that the Dodgers would not include any of the gems from their deep system such as Gavin Lux or Dustin May, but would put in multiple talents, including outfielder Alex Verdugo, and take all of Betts’ $27 million contract. There are scenarios in which they also obtain David Price (three years, $96 million left), but Boston would have to eat money and /or take back a contract like A.J. PPollock’s four years, $47 million.
The Dodgers under president of babaseball operations Andrew FriedmFriedman have been disciplined in not overpayingo — giving $1.15 for $1 woworth of return. But they went beyonbeyond their comfort zone to offer eight years and $300 million with deferrdeferrals to Gerrit Cole and would do so here. Because they haven’t won since 1988. Because the Diamondmondbacks and maybe the Padres have become peskier in the NL WestWest. Because their postseason problproblem has often revolved around the offense.of And because they anticipateipate bidding for Betts next offseasonson ananyway.
The Padres’ proposal is built arounaround the Red Sox taking on a chchunk of the three years and $61 mmillion due Wil Myers and in excexchange getting into San Diego’s deedeep trove of prospects, notably catcatcher Luis Campusano. The PaPadres have become big-game hunhunters under GM A.J. Preller as they try to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
TThey could afford to be more libeliberal in trading prospects — even with little chance of re-signinging BBetts — because they have so manmany talented farmhands and manmanaging their 40-man roster is goingoing to become a bigger and biggerger iissue.
ThThe Dodgers and Padres are motimotivated buyers. Now are the Red Sox ready to prioritize the future ovover 2020?