VARSITY BLUES
Post-pandemic, four-year colleges need to reinvent themselves — or face extinction
FOR high-school seniors, May 1 is “college decision day.” That’s the traditional deadline for students to notify their chosen schools that they plan to attend in the fall. But May 1, 2020, has come and gone and many students are refusing to commit.
In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, schools are scrambling to fill open spots.
Current college and university students are having doubts as well. Almost all left campus when their schools abruptly shifted to online classes in March. Now, some wonder when — or if — they’ll go back.
Students and their families are asking tough questions. Should we pay full tuition for classes taught online? On the other hand, are crowded lecture halls really the best way to learn? And what is that degree really worth, anyway?
For many colleges and universities, finding creative answers to those questions will be the key to their survival. While the pandemic will push some schools over the brink, it could also catalyze much-needed changes in higher education.
Even before the pandemic, many were questioning whether the fouryear college degree is a good deal. Tuition has more than doubled in the past 30 years; Americans now hold a staggering $1.5 trillion in student-loan debt. Economists note that, while a diploma leads to higher earnings for most graduates, many remain “underemployed” even years after graduation. And 40 percent of those who start college never finish.
The cultural respect traditionally paid to elite schools has diminished as well. Outrage erupted when news broke that Harvard and other lavishly endowed schools had accepted millions in federal pandemic relief money. (Harvard eventually agreed to return the funds.)
Many current students are angered that their schools refused to offer partial tuition rebates after moving classes online. Some have filed lawsuits.
Meanwhile, no one knows what the coming school year will look like. Some schools might not reopen campuses until late fall or winter. Others could offer a mix of online and classroom instruction. Large lecture classes are probably on hold, as are most sporting events.
Students and families are balking at paying full tuition for such cobbled-together programs. At the University of Chicago, students have organized a “tuition strike,” demanding 50 percent cuts.
According to one survey, 10 percent of previously college-bound high-school seniors are now planning to delay. Some say they no longer plan to attend college at all. Meanwhile, a quarter of current college students say they might not return to their schools in the fall.
A survey of parents showed that roughly half want their children to attend less-expensive schools closer to home.
Analysts estimate fall enrollment could drop as much as 20 percent, adding up to a $45 billion revenue loss. The ratings agency Moody’s recently revised its outlook for higher education from “stable” to “negative.”
“It will be worst for expensive, but non-elite private schools,” predicts Glenn Reynolds, author of “The Higher Education Bubble.” Many schools are unlikely to survive.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out,” investor Warren Buffett once said. For years, colleges and universities have expanded facilities, added administrators and raised prices — all without noticeably improving the quality of the education they provide.
Now, the pandemic is forcing everyone to reassess. For some potential students, that begins with asking whether college is right for them.
Mike Rowe, host of TV’s “Dirty Jobs,” has long argued against “the relentless drumbeat of ‘college for everyone.’ ” College is a good choice for many, he says, but other young people might find better life prospects learning a skilled trade.
Oren Cass, author of “The Once and Future Worker,” believes today’s economic downturn will put pressure on both families and governments. “Programs that don’t deliver value — whether particular departments and degrees or entire campuses — are going to find no one has the spare resources to waste on them,” he says.
Smart colleges will respond by cutting administrative bloat and luxury amenities. They might find creative — and affordable — ways to combine online and classroom learning. And they’ll have to get serious about helping students toward careers.
In the end, suggests Reynolds, “If it causes people to focus more on what students are learning than on which school has the best rockclimbing wall, it will turn out to be a blessing in disguise.”