Knicks may have huge edge in post-coronavirus free agency
Bobby Marks, ESPN’s cap guru, predicts NBA free agency this summer will “slow to a crawl” and all players with opt-outs in their contracts will choose to opt in.
That’s one economic fallout from the potentially massive salary-cap reduction because of the season’s March 11 shutdown.
If all players are forced to opt in, that means Anthony Davis returns to the Lakers for another season and will be eligible for free agency in 2021. That’s a good thing for the Knicks as Davis likely will be more amenable to moving on as LeBron James turns 37.
“I think we will go 29-for-29 on player options picked up,’’ Marks told The Post.
Marks, the former Nets capologist, penned a salary-cap thesis piece for ESPN in which he sought ideas from agents and team executives.
The NBA insiders believe free agency will “essentially be frozen,” Marks wrote, because of the cap drop.
Marks told The Post he forsees only one-year deals — and at below-usual market value.
According to Marks, the NBA and its Players Association have yet to stage formal talks on the salary-cap reduction.
Marks wrote the NBA will lose between $1 billion-$2 billion in basketball-related income. The salary cap is calculated off a percentage of the BRI. If the NBA loses $2 billion in BRI, the cap would stand at $95 million — way down from the pre-coronavirus projection of $115 million.
Even if commissioner Adam Silver resumes the season in July with fan-less playoffs, the losses will be massive.
Marks said the Knicks would stand to gain if the cap and luxurytax threshold dropped significantly. The Knicks have a series of team options they aren’t expected to exercise, especially now.
“If I was the Knicks I would want the cap and tax to crash,’’ Marks told The Post. “It would give them a huge advantage. They can collect the tax money and also have flexibility while few do.’’
Knicks president Leon Rose hired capologist Brock Aller from the Cavaliers partly because of this new post-corona landscape.
Bobby Portis’ $15 million is a team option while Elfrid Payton, Wayne Ellington, Reggie Bullock and Taj Gibson count just $1 million each against the cap if waived.
The Knicks are nowhere close to being in luxury-tax territory. Instead, they will be among four teams with cap room to take advantage of below-market deals.
In fact, the Knicks could waive Gibson and re-sign him for less than the $10 million he stood to make. That is a distinct possibility
if Tom Thibodeau becomes head coach. Thibodeau and Gibson were together in Chicago and Minnesota.
In gathering cap intel, Marks wrote some executives want the one-time amnesty clause to be restored. That allows teams to shed one onerous contract from their cap. For instance, if Detroit amnestied oft-injured Blake Griffin, he would still get paid the remaining $75.5 million of his salary, but none of it would count on the cap.
The only possible candidate the
Knicks could mull for such a maneuver is Julius Randle. The power foward will make $19 million this season. Plus, if the Knicks didn’t pick up Randle’s third-year option, he would still count for $4 million on the 2021 salary cap when a splendid free-agent class emerges.
With the economic crisis potentially extending into next season, Oklahoma City could consider point guard Chris Paul as an amnesty case. Paul, a potential Knicks’ target, will make $41 million in 2020-21 and $44 million in 2021-22.
In Marks’ piece, he noted the league may agree not to use the mathematical formula and keep the salary cap at last summer’s figure — $105 million — with the luxury-tax threshold of $139 million.
That’s what happened when the NBA emerged from the 2011 lockout — using the 2011 figure for 2012. Marks said a stronger sentiment is leaving the luxury-tax threshold at the high mark of $139 million, so teams don’t get further crunched amid this financial catastrophe.
Marks said one of the understated highlights of his informal poll was concern over the revenue-sharing impact on the midmarket teams such as Indiana, OKC, Memphis, Charlotte and New Orleans.
With canceled home games, those mid-market clubs lose out on the bonus they got from the Knicks, Lakers and the Warriors, whose ticket prices are significantly higher.