It’ll be Kyle after last mile
With the NASCAR Cup Series set to return Sunday with a loaded schedule featuring four races in 11 days, it’s a good time to look back at similar situations when a lot of racing was done in such a short period.
In the modern era, no drivers have been put through this rigorous a schedule. In fact, it has been almost 60 years since the series faced anything resembling this — with Richard Petty winning four straight races on Aug. 8, 15, 18 and 21 in 1962.
Obviously, this is a much different era of racing and a much different situation. For one, Petty won at four different tracks; these four events will be at two venues. Still, this is a huge opportunity for a driver or drivers to build some huge momentum.
It’s safe to say that any momentum drivers had gained in the first four races of 2020 is gone since teams will not have been on the track in over two months when racing resumes Sunday with The Real Heroes 400 at Darlington, S.C. As a race handicapper, I would flush early-season stats and trends, and focus on which drivers have been most successful at these tracks.
Here are some top-10 lists for statistical leaders over the past 10 races at Darlington Raceway, followed the results of my simulation of The Real Heroes 400.
Average running position per race (starts): 1. Kevin Harvick 6.5 (10); 2. Kyle Busch 6.8 (10); 3. Denny Hamlin 7 (10); 4. Erik Jones 7.33 (3); 5. Kurt Busch 10.6 (10); 6. Brad Keselowski 10.7 (10); 7. Martin Truex Jr. 10.9 (10); 8. Byron Williams 11.5 (2); 9. Joey Logano 13.4 (10); 10. Ryan Newman 13.5 (10).
Average finish position: 1. Jones 4.7; 2. Kyle Busch 6.4; 3. Harvick 6.9; 4. Hamlin 7.7; 5. Keselowski 11.1; 76. Truex Jr. 11.7; 7. Matt Kenseth 11.9 (9); 8. Austin Dillon 12.5 (6); 9. Newman 12.7; 10. Chris Buescher 14.8 (4).
Percentage of laps led: 1. Harvick 15.4; 2. Kyle Busch 14.8; 3. Hamlin 10; 4. Keselowski 8; 5. Jones 7.2; 6. Kurt Busch 4.8; 7. Truex Jr. 4.3; 8. Jimmie Johnson 3.9 (19); 9. Logano 2.3; 10. Kenseth 1.2.
Makinen’s simulation for Sunday: 1. Kyle Busch; 2. Harvick; 3. Keselowski; 4. Logano; 5. Alex Bowman; 6. Chase Elliott; 7. Truex Jr.; 8. Ryan Blaney; 9. Hamlin; 10. Johnson.
Steve Makinen is the editor of Point Spread Weekly, VSiN’s digital magazine for sports bettors.