Buy low, sell high
BETTING on season win totals has long been a favorite of both recreational bettors and wiseguys. However, their strategies couldn’t be more different. While public bettors are biased toward big-name favorites and love betting on popular teams, sharp bettors search for value and are never afraid to take an unpopular position. Pros are also more disciplined when it comes to win totals. They like to pick their spots and not go crazy wagering on too many teams.
With MLB set to return July 23, bettors still have time to get their wagers in before Opening Day.
This MLB season is unlike any other in history. With the shortened season due to the coronavirus pandemic, all win totals are based on the 60-game schedule, not the typical 162. As a result, we’re seeing win totals we never thought possible. For instance, the Dodgers and Yankees have the highest win total at 37.5 at BetMGM, while the Orioles and Tigers are dead last at 20.5.
To search for sharp win totals, I’ve combined a handful of strategies. First, I look for juice liability across the market. If multiple books are all juicing up the same side of a win total, it indicates that respected action has come in and the house has liability. Next, I look for discrepancies between the sportsbooks’ win totals and the win projections at FanGraphs, one of the most respected sites for advanced baseball analytics. Lastly, I take an overall contrarian approach and look to buy low and sell high. With the variance and unpredictability of a shortened season, I am generally leaning on good teams to go under and bad teams to go over. Once I’ve identified a win total with value, the final step is to shop for the best line and place the bet at the book offering the best number.
Here are some MLB win totals offering value (all odds from BetMGM):
Yankees Under 37.5 Wins
This is your top “sell-high” win total bet. New York went 103-59 last year, their second straight 100-win season. Then the Yankees signed ace Gerrit Cole to a monster deal in the offseason. The public is biased toward historically successful franchises anyway, but with Cole in the mix this is an auto-play Over for Average Joes. However, pros seem to think New York is a bit overvalued. Under 37.5 is being juiced up to -125, signaling some sharp action on the Under. Plus, FanGraphs is projecting New York to go 34-26, creating a 3.5-game edge to the Under. Fading the Cole frenzy seems like a smart move, especially with the Yankees also losing key contributors like Didi Gregorius, Edwin Encarnacion and Luis Severino. Angels Under 32.5 Wins
The Angels are somewhat of a trendy over pick. They hired a new manager in Joe Maddon, signed one of the biggest free agents in third baseman Anthony Rendon and also get two-way star Shohei Ohtani back from injury. Plus, the public loves betting on stars. And no player is a bigger star than Mike Trout (he’s the favorite to win AL MVP at +130). However, the Angels went 72-90 last season and their 32.5 win total translates to 87.75 wins based on a 162-game schedule. That’s a big leap to overcome. Under 32.5 is being juiced up to -120, signaling house liability on the Under. FanGraphs has Los Angeles going 30-30 (2.5 game Under edge). The Angels play in a tough AL West division and their starting rotation is paper thin. For these reasons, the Under seems quite appealing. Tigers Over 20.5 Wins
Going contrarian is all about capitalizing on value and getting better numbers. But it also means being brave enough to bet on bad teams. Look no further than Detroit. The Tigers were the worst team in MLB last season, going 47-114. The public wants nothing to do with them and sees an automatic Under. However, sharps see a deflated line and classic buy-low opportunity. FanGraphs is projecting Detroit to go 24-36, which represents 3.5 games of actionable value to the Over 20.5 win total. Sharps are also banking on some bounce-back regression after a season in which absolutely nothing went right for the Tigers.