WHO I SSPORT S’ NEXT DYNASTY?
Whoever has Giannis — Bucks or another lucky franchise — will rule for the foreseeable future
HERE’S the funny thing about dynasties: You almost never see them coming. The Yankees of yore, they were the exception, because they always managed to find icons to replace their icons — Ruth to Gehrig to DiMaggio to Mantle. That dynasty lasted the better part of 40 years, the dynasty against which all other dynasties are compared.
Otherwise? When Red Auerbach traded Cliff Hagen and Easy Ed Macauley for Bill Russell on April 30, 1956, nobody could forecast the 11 titles in 13 years that followed. When Bill Belichick and his 36-44 lifetime record used the 199th pick in the 2000 draft on Tom Brady, nobody in Foxborough was reserving space in the trophy case for six Lombardi Trophies.
If dynasty horns blared on June 1, 1992, when the Yankees picked Derek Jeter out of Kalamazoo High, or on June 25, 2009, when the Warriors selected Steph Curry out of tiny Davidson College … well, those trumpeters kept the music mostly to themselves.
Which is why I fully expect the next dynasty to be fully unknown to us as we ponder the question today. Dynasties are so difficult to build anyway, but in a salary-cap and revenue-sharing age they are that much harder to fortify and nourish. They often don’t announce themselves until they’ve already arrived. But here’s my guess at who’s next:
Whoever secures the services of Giannis Antetokounmpo for the next five to seven years.
Before the pandemic hit, Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks were overwhelming favorites, at 53-12, to emerge from the East and take on the Lakers, the Clippers, or whoever else might negotiate the roughand-tumble West. Assuming the NBA’s Orlando bubble plan goes off smoothly starting next week, the Bucks will still have a terrific shot at winning the franchise’s first title since another generational star, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, led them to one in 1971.
The Bucks have made it clear they intend to offer Antetokounmpo a super-max, and before the pandemic put the number of the next few salary caps in flux, that was going to mean five years and $247.3 million. Antetokounmpo seems to like Milwaukee fine. But nothing is guaranteed. And as we’ve seen: NBA players now go where they want to go, and not always where the most cash awaits. So that could mean anywhere.
(Although even if the Knicks are remotely serious about the absurd notion of making Jason Kidd their coach, that isn’t likely to be here. The Knicks are adept at identifying franchise-bedrock players, far less so at acquiring them.)
And if Antetokounmpo decides he doesn’t want the Bucks’ windfall — or, as likely, if a reduced max target makes the notion of wanderlust more appealing — well, that could make for a fascinating storyline, if the Bucks deal him next year or watch him walk next summer.
As much as the Kevin Durant sweepstakes captured the imagination of the league last June, after all, he was already approaching 31 with a bum Achilles. Antetokounmpo doesn’t turn 26 until December. He’ll be the youngest player of this magnitude available since 25-year-old LeBron James in 2010.
And he is only getting better. His scoring (6.8 to 12.7 to 16.9 to 22.9 to 26.9 to 27.7) and rebounding (4.4 to 6.7 to 7.7 to 8.8 to 10.0 to 12.5) have improved each of his six years in the league and his shooting percentage rose each year from 2014 (.414) to 2019 (.578) before regressing to .547 this year (when he’s attempted far more 3s than ever before).
He also has a habit of taking away the breath of other once-in-a-blue-moon players.
Durant, in 2017: “The Greek Freak is a force. His ceiling is … he could end up being the best player to ever play if he really wanted to. He’s by far my favorite player to watch.”
Magic Johnson, 2018: “He’s going to be an MVP, a champion, this dude, he’s going to put Milwaukee on the map and win them a championship.”
LeBron, 2019: “You just look at every single year how he’s been able to evolve as a player, obviously his physique has evolved, his mental approach has evolved and the franchise has evolved since his first year. I greatly appreciate to see someone that gives their all to the game. When you do that the game automatically gives back to you.”
And that means banners, in bunches, for the Bucks … or the Mavs, or the Heat, or one of the LA teams, or the Warriors, or (what the hell?) the Knicks. Or whoever gets Giannis’ name on the line that is dotted. History awaits.