Covering all of your bases
The 2020 MLB season is like nothing we’ve ever seen before. Sixty games instead of 162. Universal designated hitter. Man on second base to start extra innings. It’s enough to make your head spin. If you’re new to betting baseball, here are five easy tips to help you turn a profit during this unpredictable season.
Avoid big favorites: The public loves taking favorites. After all, they’re the better team and are expected to win. However, books know this and shade lines toward popular teams, forcing bettors to lay hefty, overpriced numbers.
If you’re constantly laying -200, -250 or -300 you’re assuming big risk with little reward. If you like big favorites, look to bet them on the spread, also known as the run line. For example, instead of betting a favorite -300 on the money line, take them to win by two or more runs at more favorable odds.
Lean on divisional ’dogs: Underdogs playing opponents inside the division perform much better than underdogs playing non-division foes. This is due to the built-in familiarity. They play each other often and know what to expect. This levels the playing field and benefits the underdog. Also look to ’dogs in games with high totals (nine runs or higher). When more runs are expected to be scored, it leads to more variance and more upset opportunities.
Monitor line movement: The way a line moves can tell you a lot about where the public is and where the sharp money is going. The goal is to bet against the Average Joes who bet based on gut instinct and bias and always be on the same side as the wiseguys who win more than they lose. Track how a line moves from open to close. If a line is moving toward a team, that’s a good sign that action is in their favor, especially if it comes late, right before first pitch.
Check the weather: Wind direction and speed is key when betting totals (Over/Unders). If the wind is blowing out, that helps an Over because it could turn a warning-track out into a first-row homer. Similarly, wind blowing in benefits Unders. Also keep track of juice movement. It will tell you where liability exists. If a total opened at 8.5 (-110) and moves to 8.5 under -115, that indicates action on the Under.
Shop for the best line: There are dozens of different sportsbooks to choose from. Never bet at just one book. Make sure you have access to multiple “outs” so you can shop for the best number. The Mets might be a -125 favorite at one book but -120 at another. Always look to minimize your risk and maximize your reward.