Sometimes it pays to go to extremes
Besides the teams affected by COVID-19, the shortened MLB season has gone on largely as expected. It also has gone quickly, with several teams already one-third of the way through their schedules. So let’s not wait to release some of the best extreme-stats baseball systems to capitalize on.
These are betting angles that look closely at unusual statistics that teams generate, and how those teams respond in the next contest.
So far in 2020, we have seen plenty of lofty scores, some run droughts and a number of situations in which bullpens have been counted on for far more than their usual workload. Such situations are spots you should watch for as you handicap each day’s games.
So let’s update the top extreme-stats betting systems:
Back road teams after losing by 15+ runs: Teams playing on the road in the follow-up game after losing by 15 runs or more are 22-21 (51.2 percent) since 2008 for +10.05 units (ROI: 23.4 percent).
Analysis: This is obviously hard-toback mentally, as a road team that just got its rear end kicked isn’t the most appetizing wager. However, they usually bounce back well.
Back road teams in divisional games after a very poor hitting game: Teams playing on the road against divisional foes in the followup game after batting .050 or worse are 3427 (55.7 percent) since ’08 for +14.2 units (ROI: 23.3 percent).
Analysis: The teams in this system also figure to be among those that bettors would be least likely to back, as all 61 teams in the sample had zero or one hit in the previous contest. But against divisional foes on the road, these teams have been able to quickly turn the page from that poor-hitting contest.
Fade big home favorites coming off a huge hitting performance:
Home favorites of -175 or higher are on a 15-16 (48.4 percent) slide in the followup game after hitting .463 or better in the previous contest. The net result has been -15.4 units (ROI: -49.7 percent).
Analysis: The teams in this system seemed to be getting overpriced by oddsmakers because they are at home and because they are coming off huge hitting performances. A letdown is the natural result.
Back home teams in divisional games that hit four or more home runs in the previous contest: Home teams in divisional games that hit four or more home runs in a contest are on a 91-59 (60.7 percent) surge in the followup game. The net result has been +17.15 units (ROI: 11.4 percent).
Analysis: It seems that hitting several home runs carries positive momentum into follow-up games, particularly when that team is playing at home versus a division foe.
Back teams that struck out no more than once in the previous contest: Teams that avoid striking out are 158-121 (56.6 percent) in the followup game since 2008. The net result has been +27.5 units (ROI: 9.9 percent)
Analysis: Nowadays, it seems that teams striking out one or fewer times in a game would be rare. It is — it has happened just once this season and eight times in the 2019 season. However, with an ROI of 9.9 percent, it pays to watch for these teams because, in those rare cases, they are seeing the ball well and thus a solid bet in the next contest.