Baseball's biggest lumber slumbers
Although the abbreviated 2020 MLB season is barely a month old, it is also remarkably at about the halfway point. Of course, this season will go down in the history books as the most unusual ever. For that reason, it’s time to flush some of the betting perceptions you might have formed about certain players and teams and get more in sync with what we are actually seeing.
Unlike the marathon-type seasons we usually have, the 2020 campaign is an allout sprint. Teams and players have so little time to snap out of slumps, while hot streaks and stellar performances may define the seasons of others. Conclusions probably will be derived quickly. It should also be a fundamental factor in the way bettors look at handicapping the action.
So it’s a good time to accentuate some of the major performance changes we have witnessed in the first half.
To try to quantify the drastic changes best, I turned to the variable on which I rely deeply when setting game prices and handicapping the lines: my Effective Strength Ratings. I have detailed the biggest changes in my ratings from opening day til now for lineups, starting pitchers and bullpens.
On Thursday, we looked at the five teams that have been the biggest offensive surprises. Today, we’ll tackle the five biggest disappointments. Note: Numbers as of Tuesday. Cleveland Indians BOY Effective Runs: 4.62, Current: 4.22 CHANGE: -0.4 RPG To see Cleveland at the top of the most disappointing offenses list, you’d figure the team was struggling. Clearly that isn’t the case, as the Indians are vying for the AL Central lead. Still, the Indians are winning with pitching, averaging only 4.0 runs per game through Sunday. Big bats like Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor have drastically underperformed and will have to pick it up in September for Cleveland to become a real threat in the AL. St. Louis Cardinals BOY Effective Runs: 4.48, Current: 4.1 CHANGE: -0.38 RPG In a word, the Cardinals’ season can best be described as disjointed, so it’s not alarming to see their offense underperforming. Runs have been hard to come by for St. Louis, as the offense has topped the five-run mark just four times. The Cards had reached double-digit hits just three times. Texas Rangers BOY Effective Runs: 4.5, Current: 4.14 CHANGE: -0.36 RPG Most of the pieces are the same in the Rangers’ lineup, but something is different in 2020. Could it be the impact of the new stadium in Arlington? Are the diminished hitting conditions causing some mental issues with Rangers hitters? In terms of production, OF Joey Gallo is having a decent season, but elsewhere it’s scarce. . Minnesota Twins BOY Effective Runs: 5.02, Current: 4.68 CHANGE: -0.34 RPG The Twins set some extremely high offensive standards in 2019, setting a major-league record with 307 home runs. The production has dropped significantly this season, but the team has adjusted. Heading into a key series versus Cleveland, Minnesota was still leading the AL Central. With 42 homers in 29 games, the Twins were still hitting plenty of deep balls, but it’s the smaller ball they are struggling with, as the team’s batting average is down 25 points and the OBP 13 points.