Giants, Jets among the Over-achievers
I may be on the short list of people who are actually optimistic about the Giants’ chances in 2020. I love the fact this franchise is finally moving on from Eli Manning, as I think loyalty to him despite his late-career shortcomings was an anchor to growth.
They still have RB Saquon Barkley, though, and I believe QB Daniel Jones has achievable potential this season. The defense also should be better with some help arriving in free agency. And they made the No. 4 draft pick count with Georgia offensive tackle Andrew Thomas. Put me down for Over 5¹/2 for their 2020 season win total.
Similarly, the Jets completely rebuilt their offensive line after ranking second to last in the NFL in rushing yards last year and fourth to last in sacks allowed. This was obviously needed, which leaves me wondering why oddsmakers think this team will be worse than last year. New York won seven games in 2019, and this year’s wager total is 6¹/2? Quarterback Sam Darnold had a 13/4 touchdown/interception ratio in the last eight games last year, when the Jets went 6-2. Things are pointing up for this franchise, not down.
Here are some other teams I see heading for the Over:
Cardinals (Over 7): Arizona averaged 22.6 ppg last year and added one of the league’s premier playmakers in WR DeAndre Hopkins, which helped GM Steve Keim address defensive needs in the draft. If I had such an award, I might name Arizona my ultimate surprise division winner.
Panthers (Over 51/2): I’m not a huge believer in the Year 1 success of the college coach (Matt Rhule) ascending to the NFL, but I do like the players this team brought in, with QB Teddy Bridgewater, LT Russell Okung and WR Robby Anderson the big names. If new OC Joe Brady has anywhere near the impact he had at LSU last year, this will be an easy Over.
Cowboys (Over 91/2): At 8-8, the Cowboys actually outscored teams by 113 points last year. That is more characteristic of an 11-5 or 12-4 team. I love the hiring of Mike McCarthy, a highly underrated coach who was incredibly successful in Green Bay before things unraveled. The offense is superb, and the defense should be much better up front.
Chargers (Over 71/2): If there was one team in the NFL whose record undersold its competitiveness last year, it was the Chargers. They were 5-11 despite being outscored by only 0.5 ppg on average. This was due in large part to a worse than minus-1 turnover differential per game and losing nine games by eight or fewer points.
Patriots (Over 9): The 2019 Patriots probably would have been nearly as good with a journeyman quarterback running the show. New England consistently stripped Tom Brady of his weaponry in recent years and became a more defense-oriented team. That unit allowed a league-best 14.1 ppg last season. The Pats also led the league with six blowout wins of 20-plus points. I’m not sure any other AFC East teams are ready to unseat New England just yet, Brady or not.
Buccaneers (Over 9): Tampa Bay was expected to be better even before signing Brady. This franchise has great offensive weapons in place and has secured some key defensive improvements. The Bucs had major turnover problems last year and still outscored their opponents. Much of this and more makes Tampa Bay a legitimate NFC contender for 2020.