IF THEY PLAY IT, BETS WILL COME
Already seeing strong $upport for COVID-era college football
LAS VEGAS — Not everyone is excited about playing college football during the COVID-19 pandemic. LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, a top NFL prospect, is the latest star to opt out, joining the Big Ten and Pac-12 conferences on the sidelines.
But some games will go on and the party bus is about to leave the station, so who’s in and who’s out? The betting public is opting in, which is no surprise.
Amid a busy Saturday sports schedule highlighted by the NBA and NHL playoffs, baseball, golf and the UFC, South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said there was “real good two-way action” on Austin Peay-Central Arkansas in the first college football game of the pandemic.
Never mind that most bettors probably could not name one player for either the Governors or Bears, a pair of FCS teams meeting before an estimated 2,000 fans in Montgomery, Ala. The game was televised and there was a betting line, so there was action.
“It was solid, but nothing crazy,” William Hill book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “It goes to show you if there’s no other college football, they will bet it. It also goes to show it can be done.”
At least six FBS conferences — the American Athletic, ACC, Big 12, Conference USA, SEC and Sun Belt — and a few other schools will attempt to do it this fall. Week 1 of the season officially kicks off Thursday with two games — Central Arkansas at Alabama-Birmingham and South Alabama at Southern Mississippi.
A mini Saturday schedule consists of six games, highlighted by Middle Tennessee at Army, before ESPN’s primetime stage goes to Brigham Young at Navy on Monday.
“BYU-Navy by itself on a Monday night might be a monster,” Bogdanovich said.
It’s not a monster the size of Texas-LSU or Ohio State-Oregon, two of the earlyseason marquee matchups that were scratched, but anything will do for now.
A majority of Las Vegas books took college football futures off the board because of the season’s uncertain status and will repost odds this week. DraftKings is offering conference title odds for three leagues. Clemson is a -455 favorite to win the ACC, Oklahoma is -125 in the Big 12, and Alabama is -125 in the SEC.
LSU is the third choice at 13/2 odds in the SEC, and Chase’s decision to opt out is the latest blow to the reigning national champions. Chase is projected to be the first receiver picked in next year’s draft. The Tigers lost quarterback Joe Burrow, the NFL’s No. 1 pick, and have only six total returning starters, with two on offense and four on defense.
Paul Stone, a college football handicapper and VSiN analyst, said his power rating of LSU’s current team is around 17 points worse than its 2019 team led by Burrow.
“Usually when a team is that dominant, like Clemson and Alabama, they just reload,” Stone said. “There were a lot of things not to like about LSU to begin with, and now this with Chase. It’s nothing like last year’s team.
“Texas would have [beaten] LSU, and that was going to be a big bet for me. But that’s not happening now.”
LSU’s new season opener is against Mississippi State on Sept. 26. DraftKings has opened the Tigers as 16½-point home favorites.
The Big Ten, which canceled its fall season in early August, is reportedly reconsidering that decision and debating a start around Thanksgiving. While the shifting schedule has created chaos for bookmakers, there will be additional wrinkles to address including more players opting out and rumors of players being ruled out with positive coronavirus tests.
Memphis, a 19-point favorite over Arkansas State on Saturday, just lost star running back Kenneth Gainwell for the season. Gainwell, who rushed for 1,459 yards last season, lost four family members to COVID-19 and opted out citing concerns about the pandemic.
“People will be pushing rumors,” Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “It’s good for business, and it moves lines. It’s going to be part of the landscape.”
On the morning of the Austin PeayCentral Arkansas game, social media rumors speculated that Austin Peay would be missing several players due to COVID-19 tests. The line moved two points in Central Arkansas’ favor. Expect similar situations to happen repeatedly.
“There were reports swirling around that Austin Peay had five or six players who tested positive, and I don’t know whether that came to fruition,” Stone said. “I might have to change my betting strategy a little bit this season because I typically bet a lot early in the week.”
Austin Peay was without its top receiver, DeAngelo Wilson, and it might have made a difference. The Governors, who closed as six-point underdogs, lost 24-17. Central Arkansas covered with a touchdown pass and two-point conversion with 34 seconds remaining.
So for ’dog bettors, Bogdanovich said, “Is that a bad beat? Unbelievable.”