ISLES BE DAMNED
LSU, Texas A&M head list of bet-against teams
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HE 2019 national champion LSU Tigers were truly a team for the ages. Led by deadeye Heisman Trophywinning quarterback Joe Burrow, who completed 76 percent of his throws for more than 5,600 yards, the Tigers steamrolled eight SEC opponents by an average of 21.6 points per game before dismantling playoff foes Oklahoma and Clemson by a combined 52 points.
But that was then, and this is now. And seasons change, especially for this year’s reshuffled LSU squad.
A record-tying 14 LSU players were selected in April’s NFL draft, with 10 picked in the first three rounds. Five Tigers heard their names called in the first round, and Burrow was the No. 1 overall selection by the Cincinnati Bengals.
But in the past few weeks, at least five Tigers have opted out of the 2020 season, including 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner Ja’Marr Chase and two defensive starters, tackle Tyler Shelvin and cornerback Kary Vincent Jr.
The Tigers’ losses didn’t end with player personnel. They also included two of Ed Orgeron’s top lieutenants, defensive coordinator Dave Aranda and passing-game coordinator Joe Brady.
Aranda took the head coaching job at Baylor, while Brady bolted to the NFL to become Matt Rhule’s offensive coordinator with the Carolina Panthers.
Although veteran handicappers will trust their own power ratings more than the wire-service polls, LSU is ranked No. 5 in the preseason coaches’ poll and one spot back atNo.6intheAPpoll.
The Tigers are simply not that good. For that reason, they headline my list of five bet-against teams in 2020. Here are the others:
Texas A&M: Many in the national media are praising the Aggies, which can be more of a curse than a blessing. A&M returns 16 starters, eight on both sides of the ball. It has athletic, dual-threat senior quarterback Kellen Mond, who has 34 career starts. And things should naturally start to jell in the third year of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure.
What’s not to like? First, history suggests the Aggies are more likely to be a middling team in the SEC West than a threat to Alabama’s supremacy at the top of the division. Since Johnny Manziel’s Heisman Trophy-winning season of 2012, the Aggies’ first year in the SEC, they are just 28-28 in league action and have posted only one winning conference record during that span. Rece Davis of ESPN voted the Aggies No. 4 on his preseason AP ballot, which included all 130 FBS teams. They’re simply not that good.
TCU: Historically, Gary Patterson has been one of those rare coaches who can blend a smorgasbord of under-recruited players and spare parts into a winning collection of on-field talent. However, the results of the past two seasons have been far below his standard, and there’s little reason to think 2020 will produce anything special.
The Big 12 has not been regarded as a murderers’ row in recent years. Still, TCU has won only seven of its past 18 conference games. The Frogs also received some distressing news during training camp when a COVID-19 test revealed that sophomore quarterback Max Duggan has suffered from a heart condition since birth. Duggan, who started 10 games as a true freshman, is out indefinitely, leaving former walk-on Matthew Downing as the probable starter. The Frogs also must replace five players drafted by the NFL, including two first-rounders in wide receiver Jalen Reagor and cornerback Jeff Gladney, and two others chosen among the first 96 picks.
Florida Atlantic: After winning 11 games last season, the Owls were already facing an uphill climb in 2020 as coach Lane Kiffin defected to Mississippi and the eligibility of a boatload of talent expired. Then over the summer, school officials announced that oft-troubled junior quarterback Chris Robison, a first-team Conference USA selection in 2019, was no longer with the program. With only eight starters returning and Willie Taggart in as the new coach, there should be opportunities to fade the Owls this fall.
Florida International: Like rival Florida Atlantic, the Panthers might need nameplates during early team meetings to help identify some of the new faces. Most of FIU’s losses are on offense, where quarterback James Morgan leaves as an improbable fourth-round draft choice by the Jets after flourishing under Butch Davis. Other losses include the school’s top two backs, who combined for almost 1,600 yards rushing last season; three of the Panthers’ top four receivers, and three starting linemen who were part of a unit that allowed only 14 sacks one season ago. FIU is one of the least experienced teams in college football this fall.