Cam’s Carroll conundrum
A couple of VSIN handicappers found some worthwhile action on the NFL’s Week 2 Sunday card:
SEAHAWKS -4 over Patriots: The Seahawks showed us a completely updated offensive scheme in a 38-25 victory at Atlanta in Week 1 that executed the second-highest pass rate on early downs (65 percent), leading to the No. 1 offensive efficiency across the league and an eye-popping 0.35 points added per play. It’s unlikely Seattle can repeat that success against the much tougher Patriots defense, but the Seahawks have numerous paths to victory in this contest.
New England showed a very onedimensional approach that will only be able to play with the lead, given its inability to execute a downfield passing attack. Pete Carroll has consistently game-planned well against Cam Newton throughout his career (Newton is 1-5 SU against Seattle and 2-4 ATS in the regular season) opening the door for the Seattle defense to add even more pressure. Fair price for the Seahawks is 7 by my numbers, and I expect Seattle to continue its excellent start to the 2020 season. — Dinsick
Patriots-SEAHAWKS Over 44.5: The Sunday nighter is one of the toughest games of the week to call. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ offense looked great, though that was against a below-average defense in Atlanta, and they face a much tougher test against the Patriots. New England’s offense has a completely new look with Newton replacing Tom Brady, but I’m not sure if it can keep up with Seattle. This total seems set a few points too low, though and I like both offenses enough to get over 44.5 total points. — Tuley
49ers-JETS Under 41.5: San Francisco heads across the country for a two-week doubleheader in New York, beginning with the Jets. The 49ers are ailing with numerous high-value players injured (Richard Sherman now on IR, Deebo Samuel on IR, George Kittle out) which will likely force them to look to the strength of their pass rush to set the tone against an overmatched Jets team.
The cluster injury for San Francisco at wide receiver will not make Jimmy Garoppolo’s life any easier after a Week 1 performance that saw him finish below league-average in both Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/p) and Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) — where he was 19th and 30th, respectively. The Jets similarly struggled offensively in Week 1, producing just 10 points before scoring a garbage-time touchdown.
The state of these offenses combined with the lengthy injury report paves the way for a shortened/ugly game that comes in under the total of 42. A fair price for this game is 40 by my numbers. — Dinsick
Vikings +3.5 over COLTS: The Colts had the most embarrassing loss of Week 1 to the lowly Jaguars (and took tons of survivor-pool players down with them), and I’m more confident in the Vikings bouncing back from their loss to the Packers, especially as the Minnesota defense can’t be worse. This game also fits into the basic strategy play of backing Philip Rivers when he’s an underdog but fading him as a favorite, just like last week. — Tuley
Vikings-COLTS Over 49.5: This lines up as a score-and-answer game with both teams capable of keeping this game in the balance into the later stages setting up an over in the dome environment at the total of 48.5.