Dont' go Over-board on pints prediction
We get the matchup most think we will see again in the AFC Championship game when the 2-0 Chiefs pay a visit to the 2-0 Ravens on “Monday Night Football.” These are the top two favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LV. We also have a matchup of the last two MVPs: Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (2018) and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (2019).
The reigning Super Bowl LIV champions got an early-season scare last weekend, having been extended into overtime by the Chargers and rookie QB Justin Herbert. Kansas City failed to cover as nine-point favorites, was outgained 479-414, and had only nine points through three quarters.
Meanwhile, it has been anything but a struggle for Baltimore as it has outscored the Browns and the Texans by a combined 71-22. The Ravens now have a 14-game regular-season winning streak. Jackson is 21-3 as a regularseason starter.
The Ravens opened last Sunday night as three-point favorites but have been bet up to three and the hook. It should also surprise no one that a prime-time game with two of the league’s premier young quarterbacks has also attracted plenty of money and tickets toward the Over, and the total has moved upwards from the opener of 52 to 54.5 with the first half increasing from an opener of 24 to the current number of 26.5.
Many sportsbooks are reporting the bulk of the tickets on the Chiefs, but enough money has come in on the Ravens to bump the current spread higher to -3.5. The Ravens are also three-point favorites for the first half with some vigorish attached on the Baltimore side.
The Chiefs, aside from being the team in possession of the current Lombardi Trophy, are also likely seeing most of the action because there are so many trends that favor them. Andy Reid is 21-9 ATS in Weeks 1-4 with the Chiefs. Reid also is 3819-1 ATS on the road in regular-season games during his current tenure. Mahomes is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in September as the Chiefs starter. Kansas City is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall, but Baltimore is on a 6-1 ATS streak as well. The Chiefs have won 11 straight games dating back to Week 11 of last season and are +145 on the moneyline at BetMGM (-176 on Baltimore).
It is difficult to turn down the Chiefs as underdog with so many trends in their favor and an opportunity to buy low on Kansas City off its shaky performance last weekend, but the better option may be to look toward the total.
The Ravens defense is allowing the fewest points (11 ppg) and the secondfewest yards (305 ypg) in the NFL. The Chiefs defense is currently ninth in points allowed (20 ppg). Both defensive units obviously take a step up in class this week.
The Ravens have been run-heavier in the first two games with 69 running plays versus just 50 passing plays. After a balanced attack in Week 1, the Chiefs ran the ball only 22 times out of 70 total plays in Los Angeles. Last week’s close call was Kansas City’s fourth straight Under on the road, and the Ravens are 5-1 to the Under in their last six games as a home favorite.
The betting public will likely continue to wager on the Over as game time approaches, so it is best to wait for the highest number possible as 55 or even 56 has a good chance of showing, and those numbers should receive buyback on the Under for line value bettors.