Metrics point to two ’dogs & an Over
VSIN’S analytics-driven handicapper drills into several of the NFL Week 12 games.
Raiders (-3, 53.5) at Falcons: After how poorly the Falcons fared in Week 11, it’s understandable why the market would downgrade Atlanta, but the adjustment from the lookahead line of pick ’ em to Falcons + 3 is too significant. Julio Jones looks unlikely to go, but Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage form a difficult test for a Raiders pass defense that could not stop the Chiefs at home and ranks 22nd this season in Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback.
The Raiders will score comfortably against a Falcons defense that has also struggled this season, but the margin between these teams is approximately Raiders -1 by my numbers, so I’ll take the points with the home team here.
Chargers at Bills (-4, 52.5): The Chargers finally got another win last week, bringing them to 3-7 on the season and making them one of the best 3-7 teams in NFL history; Los Angeles currently ranks 11th in passing offense and 11th on overall defense based on EPA per play, and they are clearly better than league average. The Bills have also been very strong in 2020 with an offense that ranks sixth overall, however their defense has slipped considerably to No. 21 overall based on EPA per play.
Buffalo is coming off its bye, but reinforcements look unlikely as key wide receiver John Brown is out and the defense will still be shorthanded. There is only one point of separation between these teams based on my power numbers, so with home-field advantage the Bills should be a 3-point favorite in my opinion. This looks like an excellent opportunity to back the underdog.
Cardinals (-1.5, 48.5) at Patriots:
The season is effectively over for the Patriots following their loss to Houston in Week 11, and their undoing in 2020 has been uncharacteristically poor defense. New England is currently No. 25 in the NFL conceding 0.11 expected points per play and has been equally vulnerable to the pass and the run.
Arizona comes to town in the thick of a tight divisional race in the NFC West with extra rest after a tough loss a week ago Thursday. The Cardinals offense matches up well against the Patriots defense with Kyler Murray an example of the exact type of quarterback that Bill Belichick defenses have struggled with, even in good years.
Similarly, with the Cardinals suffering from a cluster injury to their defensive line, the Patriots ground game behind the strength of their offensive line should also have a nice day moving the football.
The weather looks clear and the total is surprisingly low considering the matchup, so the Over is in sight with a fair price of 53 by my numbers.