'Dogs day made for unhappy bettors
Experts: Jets-Raiders ending not conspiracy, just terrible play call
Week 13 in the NFL provided another wild week of betting, and another in which underdogs were barking. ’Dogs were 7-5 on Sunday, with four outright wins. Unders also cashed at a high clip, going 8-4.
The biggest game for most sportsbooks was the Giants (+11) beating the Seahawks outright 17-12. Not only did the Giants cash as +475 underdogs for the select few that bet them to win, the outright win killed many moneyline parlays and teasers that were alive heading into Sunday night. Over 80 percent of the spread money was on the Seahawks -11 at William Hill US sportsbooks. William Hill head of trading Nick Bogdanovich told VSiN that the Giants winning outright was the biggest win of the day for the book.
“The Giants winning outright was pretty big for us due to the amount of money that was wagered on the Seattle moneyline,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in New Jersey, said. “It was the biggest decision of the late games.”
“It was a big teaser weekend with the Dolphins, Saints, Raiders, Packers and Seahawks” Station Casinos sportsbook director Chuck Esposito told VSiN. “The Giants’ outright win knocked down a lot of teaser liability.”
In the early games, bettors were burned by the Titans (-4), who lost 41-35 to the Browns, and the Raiders (-7.5), despite the Raiders’ miraculous lastminute 31-28 win. The Browns-Titans game was the biggest win of the early games at The Borgata, in part because of one wager: A $150,000 moneyline bet on the Titans at -205 odds. The BrownsTitans game was also the most-bet early game at BetMGM sportsbooks, including a losing $125,000 wager on the Titans -4.
There was also one losing seven-point teaser involving the Titans, as one BetMGM bettor wagered $175,000 on the Titans +3 and Dolphins -3. The Dolphins won (and covered) 19-7 against the Bengals, but the Titans did not.
In the Jets-Raiders game, the vast majority of money on the spread and moneyline was on the Raiders at -7.5 or higher. At PointsBet sportsbooks, 84 percent of the bets and a staggering 89 percent of the money was on Las Vegas -7.5. It was the most-bet game of the early window at BetRivers sportsbooks, and included one lucky bettor who won a $240,000 wager on the Jets +7.5 (-120) at BetMGM.
One bettor who wasn’t so lucky placed a $25 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook on Sept. 8 on the Jets’ first win of the season coming against the Raiders in Week 13 at 250-1 odds. The bet would’ve won $6,250 if the Jets were victorious on Sunday.
The majority of bettors did well on the Packers (-8.5) winning 30-16 over the Eagles, the Colts (-3) beating the Texans 26-20, the Saints (-3) defeating the Falcons 21-16 and the Rams (-3) winning 38-28 over the Cardinals.
Sportsbooks VSiN spoke with all reported a winning NFL Sunday, which was helped further by the Broncos (+13) covering against the Chiefs in a 22-16 loss. The majority of bets and money at most books was on the Chiefs covering the big number. At PointsBet, 95 percent of the money was also on the Over 51.5, which did not come through for bettors.
LAS VEGAS — It looked like a miracle from above. Derek Carr lofted a pass that dropped from the sky and landed in the hands of Henry Ruggs for the winning 46-yard touchdown with five seconds remaining.
The Raiders’ playoff hopes stayed alive with a wild 31-28 victory over the hapless Jets, who stayed winless (0-12) and on track to land the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL draft. So was it a miracle or something mysterious?
Those with a fascination for conspiracy theories — the betting public included — immediately jumped to conclusions Sunday as the Raiders celebrated their improbable road win.
The theory is the Jets’ coaching staff, specifically defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, wanted to lose the game and tank for the top draft pick. Williams called an all-out blitz that left a rookie cornerback in single coverage against Ruggs, one of the fastest receivers in the league. Essentially, sending eight defenders at Carr instead of sitting back in a deep prevent defense was the only way the Jets could lose.
“No, I don’t buy the conspiracy,” said VSiN’s Brent Musburger, the radio play-by-play voice of the Raiders. “I always think tanking is strictly for fans and the media, and athletes don’t go for that.”
But what about coaches, and does the front office go for tanking? It could be argued Adam Gase still is the head coach and Williams, who was fired Monday, still was calling the defense because Jets ownership surmised that sticking with the clumsy Gase-Williams duo was a way to keep the team winless and on the path to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who could change the franchise’s direction for the next decade. That theory makes some sense.
Musburger said it makes no sense the coaches, who surely expected to be fired soon, care enough about the No. 1 pick to go 0-16. It also makes no sense the players want to lose, and proof was in the Jets’ defensive stop on fourth down previous to the Raiders’ final drive.
The Raiders were 7.5-point favorites and attracted heavy betting action, especially on six-point teasers and on the moneyline (-400 at BetMGM) to win outright. Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said a Jets victory could have produced the biggest single-game win of the NFL season for his book, so everyone can rule out a Vegas conspiracy.
“We certainly did well and won money on the day, but we could have done so much better if the Raiders had lost,” Murray said. “The Jets purposely giving up the touchdown is disappointing. The players obviously don’t want to lose the game. The Raiders still had to execute the play, so give them credit for that. But I don’t know how you could explain that [blitz call] other than they were trying to lose. It’s unreal. No coach could be that dumb.”
Because the Raiders trailed by four points and had no timeouts left, Musburger said he was “stunned” by Williams’ decision to blitz.
“Gregg Williams is going to suffer for that play call because he left his secondary out to dry,” Musburger said. “I know that conspiracy theory is going to be out there, but professional athletes still want to win the game. It was a terrible defense to use in that situation. Williams is a pressure defensive coach and he’s going to bring it. He’s the bounty hunter, he was going after Carr, and he paid a tremendous price.”
VSiN analyst Michael Lombardi pinned the Jets’ loss on “coaching malpractice to the highest level” by Williams.
“That was Williams being arrogant,” Lombardi said. “He should have been fired in the locker room. That loss belongs on one man. It’s ridiculous that Gase allowed that call to happen. It’s horrible. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s a false narrative. It has nothing to do with Trevor Lawrence. The Jets were trying to win the game.”
When handicapping the NFL, bettors would be wise to hunt for coaching mismatches, and there were two obvious such situations Sunday.
Bill Belichick faced Anthony Lynn in Los Angeles, where the Chargers closed as small favorites yet the Patriots rolled 45-0.
“We had sharp guys betting the Chargers -1.5,” Murray said in a tone of disbelief. “It was a hilarious game. It was like Anthony Lynn gave you a manual on how not to coach the game.”
Sean McVay faced Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona, where the Rams won 38-28 as 3-point favorites. McVay improved to 7-0 with six double-digit wins against the Cardinals the past three seasons.
Another profitable angle to consider is a coaching change — bet on a team the week after the coach gets fired. Houston fired Bill O’Brien after starting 0-4, and the Texans (-6.5) beat Jacksonville 30-14 the next week. Atlanta fired Dan Quinn after starting 0-5, and the Falcons (+3.5) beat Minnesota 40-23 the next week.
The angle improved to 3-0 when the Lions, 3-point underdogs, rallied to beat the Bears 34-30 in Chicago. Detroit’s players seemed to welcome the news of coach Matt Patricia getting fired after the Thanksgiving Day massacre.
Musburger said with a laugh, “If the Jets want to stay with the No. 1 pick, don’t fire Gase, because they will win next week.”