Liberty migh have answer to Coastal
Incredibly, crazy '20 season almost at an end
Here’s a look at some betting angles for the Christmas Day bowl and an intriguing Saturday game.
Buffalo vs. Marshall, Camellia Bowl, Friday: In this crazy, mixed-up college football season, these teams meet on Christmas Day, just seven days after both were upset in their conference championship games.
Buffalo was running over the MidAmerican Conference at 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS before losing 38-28 to Ball State as a 13-point favorite in the MAC Championship game. Marshall was 7-0 and ranked as high as No. 15 in the AP poll three short weeks ago before dropping its last two games, including a 22-13 loss to UAB in the Conference USA title game as a five-point favorite.
Buffalo has the more prolific offense, still averaging 508.7 yards and 47.8 points per game, though that was all against MAC competition, and is led by running back Jaret Patterson, who has piled up 1,072 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns.
Marshall has the better passing attack with quarterback Grant Wells spreading the ball around to a decent corps of receivers with no stud performer. Marshall really wins with its defense, allowing just 12.6 points and 88.9 rushing yards per game, so this probably comes down to Buffalo’s run offense versus Marshall’s run defense.
While Buffalo didn’t face any ranked teams this season, and lost to the only bowl-bound team it faced in Ball State, Marshall did beat then-No. 23 Appalachian State, 17-7, on Sept. 19, and therein might be the key to betting this game.
The total is set at 54 points but
probably should be lower except that Buffalo is 4-2 to the Over and Marshall is 5-4. If Marshall could contain Appalachian State, it has a chance to slow Buffalo’s offense just like Ball State did last week.
Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina, Cure Bowl, Saturday: We get to see this matchup after all, following the cancellation of their Dec. 5 game due to COVID-19 on the Liberty side. BYU was hastily recruited as a replacement to face Coastal Carolina in what turned out to be the mid-major game of the year as the Cougars ended on the Chanticleers’ 1-yard line in a pulsating 22-17 Coastal win.
Flat for the first time all season the following week at Troy, Coastal Carolina suffered its first spread loss against an FBS opponent this season, though it rallied for a breathtaking 42-38 outright win to maintain its unbeaten straight-up mark (11-0).
The Flames will not shirk this challenge after winning a couple of games at ACC schools — Syracuse and Virginia Tech — and falling a blocked last-second field goal short of a win at bowl-bound North Carolina State. A win in Raleigh likely would have made Liberty, not Coastal, the buzz team of the mid-major ranks.
Coastal is giving nearly a full touchdown at most books, which seems like too much, especially considering Liberty is on its own hot streak against the spread (seven straight) and is 6-1 as an underdog since mid-September of last season. The Flames also pulled off a mild upset over Georgia Southern in last year’s Cure Bowl on this same field.
IDIDN’T think we’d make it this far. I didn’t think there’d be a season. I didn’t think there’d be a national champion. But I’m happy I was wrong. I’m happy Saturdays weren’t as empty as so many stadiums. I’m happy we could watch the final college seasons of Trevor Lawrence and DeVonta Smith. I’m happy that I could get angry about Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina being insulted by a committee with less courage than a BCS computer.
I’m even happy the still-bloated Bowl Season is here. It would’ve been so easy for there to have been nothing at all.
New Mexico Bowl
Houston (-10.5) over Hawaii: The Cougars are grateful for one more opportunity to play in a season in which eight of their games were canceled or postponed. The jet-lagged Rainbow Warriors have dropped their past two games on the mainland by an average of 24 points.
Camellia Bowl
Buffalo (-5.5) over Marshall: At the start of December, both teams were undefeated. By the end of the month, one season will feel like a disappointment, following both teams’ disastrous showings in their respective league title games. While Buffalo running back Jaret Patterson should bounce back from his worst outing of the year, Marshall’s meltdown will continue. After a 7-0 start, the Thundering Herd have lost both games since a three-week break, scoring a total of 13 points.
Cure Bowl
Coastal Carolina (-7) over Liberty: After a month off, the Flames are set up for failure against the little undefeated engine that could. Liberty head coach Hugh Freeze losing the Auburn job to Boise State’s Bryan Harsin stings even more.
First Responder Bowl
Louisiana-Lafayette (-13.5) over UTSA: A brilliant season that began with a convincing road win at Iowa State ends with rage after the Sun Belt title game was canceled. The No. 19 Cajuns deserve a better ranking, bowl and opponent.
Lending Tree Bowl
Western Kentucky (+3.5) over Georgia State: The Hilltoppers have won three straight games. The Panthers will have had a four-week layoff. Don’t overthink it.
Cheez-It Bowl
Oklahoma State (-2.5) over Miami: The Hurricanes’ defense looked like it was hit with a Category 5 against ranked teams this season, surrendering more than 48 points per game. The wreckage will continue, with Miami’s star defensive linemen Quincy Roche and Jaelen Phillips opting out to prepare for the NFL draft.
Alamo Bowl
Texas (-9.5) over Colorado: The Longhorns are sticking with Tom Herman for at least another season. So, you can count on
him and senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger to cap another underachieving season by leading Texas to a fourth straight meaningless bowl victory.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest (+7) over Wisconsin: It makes sense that the most repulsive bowl game sponsor gets paired with one of the sport’s least palatable offenses. Averaging 10 points over the past four games, the Badgers will either bring struggling freshman quarterback Graham Mertz back from a concussion or turn to Chase Wolf, who has thrown six career passes.
Music City Bowl
Iowa (-14.5) over Missouri: The Hawkeyes’ six-game winning streak featured numerous blowouts, but no victories against teams with winning records. Fortunately for Iowa, the Tigers (5-5) fill that bill, entering with a defense giving up at least 49 points in its past three games.
Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma (+3) over Florida: The Big 12 champs — riding seven straight wins — can finally enjoy this time of year, knowing another playoff embarrassment won’t come. Putting up points against the Gators will be no problem. Florida QB Kyle Trask’s chance of winning the shoot-out go down drastically with top target Kyle Pitts leaving for the NFL’s green room.
Armed Forces Bowl
Tulsa (-2.5) over Mississippi State: I don’t understand this line and I don’t care to. Just happily snatch up the two-loss Golden Hurricane, who nearly took down undefeated Cincinnati and have a linebacker (Zaven Collins) who will single-handedly wreak havoc against the Bulldogs’ wildly inconsistent attack.
Arizona Bowl
Ball State (+8) over San Jose State: The Cardinals just spoiled one perfect season with their upset of Buffalo. Senior quarterback Drew Plitt has led Ball State to six straight
wins, so another spoiler game isn’t impossible.
Liberty Bowl
Army (+8) over West Virginia: The Black Knights were put in the position of desperately wanting to play in a pedestrian bowl — and more than motivation is in their favor. The last time the Mountaineers faced a triple-option offense, the oldest player on their current roster was a junior in high school.
Texas Bowl
Arkansas (+6.5) over TCU: The record book will show that Sam Pittman went 3-7 in his first regular season with the Hogs. I’ll remember that he went 7-3 against the spread.
Peach Bowl
Cincinnati (+7) over Georgia: The Bearcats have been waiting for such an opportunity all season. Like Central Florida in 2017 — which knocked off Auburn to complete an undefeated season — Cincy should have had a chance to play for a national championship. Playoff expansion can’t come soon enough.
Citrus Bowl
Northwestern (-3.5) over Auburn: The Tigers may not mind parting with a $21.5 million severance package, but they will miss having underappreciated Gus Malzahn to kick around. Until Nick Saban steps down at Alabama, the inferiority complex will remain.
Rose Bowl
Notre Dame (+19.5) over Alabama: The line is an overreaction to the Fighting Irish getting blasted by Clemson last week. It’s rooted in history that’s no longer relevant, like Alabama’s 2012 BCS title game blowout of Notre Dame and Clemson’s 30-3 win over the Irish two years back. It pretends Notre Dame’s win over Clemson last month never happened. It acts as if Alabama is invincible, when Nick Saban’s defense no longer strikes fear into its opponents. Four teams have stayed within 20 points of the Crimson Tide this season. The Irish can achieve that much.
Sugar Bowl
Ohio State (+7.5) over Clemson: In 2018,
Justin Fields was the No. 2 high school recruit in the country. Fellow Georgia native Trevor Lawrence was the first. Last year, Fields suffered his only loss at Ohio State after a last-minute playoff interception against Clemson. Next year, Fields could be picked as high as No. 2 in the NFL draft, and no player will be picked ahead of Lawrence. For one night, Fields will look like Lawrence’s equal.
Gator Bowl
North Carolina State (+2.5) over Kentucky: The Wildcats’ four wins this season came against teams with a combined record of 8-31. The nation’s 107th-ranked offense will look the part after a month off.
Outback Bowl
Indiana (-6.5) over Mississippi: The Hoosiers could have received a New Year’s Six bowl appearance. Instead, they’ll play a sub-.500 opponent that sports the nation’s worst defense. After five interceptions against LSU, wild-card Matt Corral of the Rebels meets the defense with more interceptions per game (2.4) than any in the land.
Fiesta Bowl
Iowa State (-4.5) over Oregon: The Ducks’ season peaked with an undeserved Pac-12 championship, but the Cyclones’ best season in decades is no fluke. The nation’s leading rusher, Iowa State’s Breece Hall, will pad his stats against a defense torched by every decent ground game this season.
Orange Bowl
North Carolina (+6.5) over Texas A&M: The Aggies are where they belong. The 28point loss to Alabama is proof. Even against a soft schedule, A&M couldn’t show strength. An Aggies defense accustomed to cupcakes will show its true colors against the sixthhighest scoring offense in the nation.
BEST BETS: Texas, Oklahoma, Tulsa, N.C. State, Iowa State
THIS SEASON (BEST BETS): 113-100-3 (23-21-1) (entering Monday)
772-756-13